-Matt Cox
Key Returners: Everyone
Key Losses: None
Key Newcomers: Greg Brown
Lineup:
Outlook: In an alternate universe, one not engulfed in a pandemic vice grip, Shaka Smart might be Shaka shakin’ in his boots. Barring a deep Big-12 tournament run, the Longhorns were at risk of missing a third NCAA Tournament in the last four seasons. Speculation about Shaka’s shaky future at Texas slowly amplified as the year progressed, but those groans became audible on February 15th. The Horns were mauled by Iowa State in Ames, an embarrassing 81-52 loss that dropped UT to 4-8 in the Big-12 and 14-11 overall. Had COVID traveled to American shores a month earlier, we might be talking about a new regime in Texas. Instead, the Horns rallied around their commander and mustered a daunting five game winning streak, notching victories over West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma in consecutive fashion.
Despite the admirable finish, it still felt ‘too little too late’ to salvage an at-large berth, a doomsday scenario for Shaka’s job safety. But, that’s when COVID put the nation in a stranglehold. All bubble conversations were rendered moot. Suddenly, the Texas athletic department began to reassess the state of the program through a glass half full lens. In the eyes of Longhorn AD Chris Del Conte, that aforementioned late season surge stood out as a launching pad to what could be a banner 2021 campaign. On March 27th, Del Conte officially confirmed his commitment to Shaka:
"Shaka's our coach," Del Conte told the Austin American-Statesman. "Nothing's changed. We won five of the last six down the stretch, finished third in the conference. We have a good team coming back. Nothing's changed on my end."
Thank you, Chris, for that preview lead in. A ‘good team coming back’ is where the optimism starts with the 2021 Longhorns, as 12 members from last year’s roster return to the ring. Backcourt running mates Andrew Jones, Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey are the table-setters, who will share the floor plenty next year as a three-pronged lead guard attack.
Jones’ story doesn’t need an A-list screenwriter – the script writes itself. His unthinkable comeback after battling Leukemia still gives me chills every time he steps on the floor, but he’s way more than just a feel-good story. Jones was the impetus who rose from the ashes to save Texas’ season last year, putting on a nightly clinic during the Horns’ late February scorcher. He was the MVP in victories over Texas Tech, West Virginia and TCU, eclipsing 20 points in all three contests while clocking a taxing 38 minutes a game. Jones solidified that he’s not just the Longhorns’ emotional rallying cry, but the motor that drives this team forward.
Jones’ backcourt lieutenants, Coleman and Ramey, will be under a hyper-critical microscope this year after last season’s uninspiring performance. Let’s just call a spade a spade: Coleman and Ramey were the epitome of *fine* last season. They both struggled finishing inside the arc, often settling for tough twos in the midrange area (Coleman in particular), rather than attacking the rim with fervor. Jones is also guilty of similar shot-selection complacency, a shared bad habit this trio should strive to fix in 2021. Texas’ offense leans on a steady stream of ball screens – per Synergy, 25% of all offensive possessions ended with a pick-n-roll ball handler or screener finishing the play last season – but that’s only as effective as the guards initiating the action.
We’ve been critical of Shaka’s lack of offensive creativity in years past, but I’ll tip my cap to his recent adoption of the 3-point revolution . The Longhorns’ 3-point attempt rate spiked dramatically the last two seasons, and, despite their bricklaying reputation, Texas actually cashed in on a healthy number of those attempts. Per KenPom, UT finished with the 150th and 169th ranked team 3-point percentage in 2019 and 2020, respectively. A healthy Jase Febres should help keep that intact, a long-range assassin who canned 55 triples at a 37% clip before missing the final eight games of the season.
All that said, falling in love with the long ball can be a double-edged sword, particularly for a roster flushed with this much size and athleticism. Last season, Texas posted the 4th lowest free throw rate in the country and the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the Big-12.
I commend Shaka’s push to balance the offense with shooting and spacing. But at the expense of ignoring second chance points and free throws, two critical sources of scoring? How about unleashing that army of 4-star and 5-star athletes (see Donovan Williams and Gerald Liddell) in a brigade of rim attackers and glass crashers. All I’m saying is that there’s a balance here. Tapping into that well of athleticism would help the Horns subsidize their jump shooting streakiness by manufacturing points through grit and grind.
Regardless of Texas’ offensive destiny, the abundance of speed and length up and down the roster should manifest in a lockdown defense. Shaka’s dominant units on this side of the ball have consistently been built from the ground up, leaning on an interior destroyer in the middle. In recent years, Austin has become an oasis for elite fly swatters – Mo Bamba, Jaxson Hayes and Jarrett Allen, to name a few. When these erasers are augmented with top-flight athletes flocking all over perimeter, a top-25 defense is a near guarantee. This year, 5-star, top-10 freshman Greg Brown will join an already robust crop of forwards, including Jericho Sims, Kai Jones, Kamaka Hepa,Will Baker and Royce Hamm. Collectively, there may not be a deeper shot-swatting pool in the country.
Brown is the latest Longhorn in a long line of vertical sky walkers, blessed with otherworldly athleticism…
Injuries prevented Jones and Sims from hitting their stride last year, so any additional interruptions will part the seas for Brown to be the interior fulcrum this season. Baker and Hepa are both under construction at this stage in their development, but if either can recalibrate their smooth shooting stroke into a consistent and reliable jumper, they could be tailor-made fits at the 4 alongside the more paint-centric Brown, Sims or Jones.
Bottom Line: Top-to-bottom, you won’t find a more talented roster in the Big-12. A heap of injuries fractured Texas’ on-court chemistry last year, as Jones and Ramey were the only two Longhorns to play in all 31 games. Shaka’s teams usually deliver on the defensive end, and should clamp down again this year, even without defensive coordinator mastermind Luke Yaklich roaming the sidelines. Barring another injury-ridden season, Texas has the horses to crash the Kansas / Baylor / Texas Tech / West Virginia party if everything breaks right. However, tread lightly on crowning the Longhorns a top-10 team right out of the gate – let’s see Shaka assemble the puzzle first.