-Jim Root
Key Returners: M.J. Walker, RaiQuan Gray, Malik Osborne, Anthony Polite, RayQuan Evans
Key Losses: Devin Vassell (pro), Trent Forrest, Patrick Williams (pro)
Key Newcomers: Scottie Barnes, Sardaar Calhoun (JUCO), Tanor Ngom (Ryerson - Canada)
Lineup:
Outlook: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2020 ACC Tournament Champions: the Florida State Seminoles! What a magical run through a challenging tourney field. The memories will live forever in our minds, along with the banner that will surely hang in the rafters…
Of course, the tournament didn’t actually happen, and my sarcasm shouldn’t obscure the incredible season that took place in the Florida panhandle. Leonard Hamilton and the ‘Noles captured the team’s first ever ACC regular season title and looked every bit of a Final Four contender in March, oozing athleticism and sporting multiple future pros in Devin Vassell (likely a lottery pick) and Patrick Williams (another first round lock). Without those two and senior leader Trent Forrest, FSU could take a slight step back, but Hamilton has plenty of weapons capable of making his system work once again.
Two of those weapons are significant additions this offseason: Scottie Barnes, who edges Jonathan Isaac as the program’s highest-rated recruit ever, and Sardaar Calhoun, one of the country’s best junior college prospects. Barnes epitomizes everything Hamilton’s athlete-heavy system thrives on: he’s long, he’s bouncy, he can guard four or five positions, and he’s a terrific slasher. He immediately becomes the future lottery pick du jour in Tallahassee, and though his offensive game is slightly raw, he’s a terror on the defensive end. Calhoun isn’t quite the octopus-armed destroyer that Barnes is, but he’s solidly built at 215 pounds and showed strong instincts. He’s also a smooth and confident scorer, something that may get him on the floor immediately
Both Barnes (6’8) and Calhoun (6’6) fit the bill for Hamilton’s hyper-switchable defensive schemes, which became even more dangerous last season with the introduction of lineups featuring Malik Osborne or RaiQuan Gray as the nominal center. Hamilton will never fully betray his love for skyscraper shot-blockers – that’s what 7’1 sophomore Balsa Koprivica and 7’2 Canadian grad transfer Tanor Ngom are for – but the overwhelming versatility with the smaller centers added a new element for FSU’s already-formidable defense. Barnes slides naturally into the minutes vacated by Williams, and there’s every reason to believe the typical Hamilton defensive staples will remain: elite block rate, strong field goal percentages.
Another key aspect of switching so much is having big guards, a box this FSU roster checks emphatically. Six-foot-four RayQuan Evans is the likely starter at point guard, with 6’5 MJ Walker joining him there while Calhoun, 6’6 Anthony Polite, 6’5 Nathanael Jack, and 6’8 Wyatt Wilkes provide plenty of depth.
All of that size and athleticism allowed Hamilton to unleash pressure defensively, hawking opposing ball-handlers for 94 feet and getting into passing lanes off the ball. As a result, Florida State forced the highest rate of isolations in the country (nearly 10% of possessions) and ranked 9th nationally in defensive turnover rate, the highest such ranking in Hamilton’s tenure. With impact defenders returning in Gray, Polite, and Osborne, along with adding a monster in Barnes, FSU’s defense maintaining its potency feels like a safe bet.
How these groups generate open shots will be the team’s biggest question mark, as Forrest bore a massive brunt of the creation burden. Shockingly, the on/off numbers painted a glowing picture of Evans-led lineups, though with the important caveat that Evans was often squaring off with bench-heavy opposition:
Most telling in the Evans numbers is a major uptick in offensive rebounding rate, which has been a massive source of points for the ‘Noles under Hamilton. The overwhelming athleticism and size up and down the roster makes this an obvious area of emphasis, and Osborne (7th in the ACC in O-reb rate) and Koprivica both excelled on the glass last year. It doesn’t feel wild to predict that Ngom, a 7’2 guy who averaged a double-double in Canada, might scoop up a few extra possessions, as well.
Still, that doesn’t solve how the team is creating efficient “first shot” opportunities. Vassell was a matchup nightmare thanks to his smooth shooting stroke, and without him, Forrest, and Williams, only Walker finished more than 16 possessions in pick-and-rolls last year (he was almost exactly average at it, 51st percentile). Again, the burden on Evans will grow exponentially this year; his play will be a massive swing factor in the FSU campaign. Polite, Wilkes, and Jack all offer some shooting on the wing, which should help spread the floor somewhat, but none of those guys will generate opportunities for others.
What has proven effective for Hamilton has been getting out in transition. Like the offensive glass, it makes more sense to let his high-flying roster score in the open court. Last year’s ‘Noles ranked in the 76th percentile in transition points per possession, per Synergy, and it’s easy to envision a roster with Walker, Barnes, Calhoun, etc. maintaining that level of efficiency. For a team like this, defense generates offense:
Bottom Line: This Florida State team isn’t going anywhere, primarily due to a stable of athletes that should be able to lock up at a top -25ish level on the defensive end. The offensive question marks mean it won’t be another season in pursuit of 30 wins and an ACC title, but a fifth straight NCAA Tournament-caliber squad is quite likely. The Seminoles’ ceiling hinges on the play of Evans at point guard and how much of a scoring impact Calhoun has – he had 16 games with 20+ points in junior college, including a 48-point explosion in the season’s penultimate game. Regardless, pencil Mr. Hamilton and the ‘Noles into your 2021 NCAA brackets already.