- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Jaden Shackelford, John Petty, Herb Jones, Alex Reese
Key Losses: Kira Lewis, James Bolden, Galin Smith, Jaylen Forbes, Javian Davis
Key Newcomers: Jordan Bruner (Yale), Jahvon Quinerly (Villanova), Joshua Primo, James Rojas (Redshirt), Keon Ellis (JUCO), Keon Ambrose-Hylton, Juwan Gary (Redshirt), Darius Miles, Alex Tchikou
Lineup:
Outlook:
Head coach Nate Oats was rewarded for his incredible work building the Buffalo basketball program with a spot on the bench at Alabama and arguably the worst preseason luck of any team in the country. Heading into 2019-20, the Tide looked to be a bona fide top 25 threat with a bevy of young talent and highly rated recruits walking in the door. Then the injury bug struck. Two promising players, 4-star freshman Juwan Gary and top five JUCO recruit James Rojas, tore their ACLs before even playing a regular season contest, shortening Oats’s bench and shifting his rotations. During the year, James Bolden and Herb Jones also missed time with injuries, ultimately leading to the Tide’s underwhelming 16-15 (8-10) season.
Bama is stacked with talent for a second straight season, but this time it’ll be without Kira Lewis, its lightning-fast point guard who opted to turn pro following the end of last year. The Tide’s offensive numbers without Lewis last season were simply abysmal:
Info per Hoop Lens
The caveat here is Lewis ranked 16th in minutes played nationally last year, meaning the sample size is very low, but it’s still a concern heading into 2020-21.
Point guard play is going to be the key for Alabama this season. Oats’s system is essentially “pace and space” – his teams run constantly in transition and shoot a ton of threes. In 2019-20, Alabama ranked 4th nationally in tempo and 8th in three-point attempt rate.
This system thrives when it has a reliable point guard who is able to push the issue in the open floor, which made Lewis such a perfect fit. Villanova transfer Jahvon Quinerly will be relied upon this season to provide that spark offensively. Quinerly was a top 30 5-star recruit coming out of high school who carried a ton of hype. He wasn’t given much of an opportunity to shine at Nova, which was due to a myriad of factors including system fit and surrounding personnel. Rest assured, Quinerly is extremely talented and has the handles and quickness to thrive in Alabama’s transition offense. If he isn’t able to step up to the plate, the Tide are in for a long year.
Quinerly won’t need to score like Lewis for Alabama to succeed this season – his backcourt mates bring plenty of firepower in that regard. Sophomore SG Jaden Shackelford, an SEC All-Freshman Team member in 2019-20, will likely lead the team in scoring after pouring in 15.0 PPG as a rookie. Shackelford is an “efficient gunner”, a guy who takes and makes a high volume of threes. He’ll need to prove he’s capable of creating his own shot more this season, but he showed flashes of off-the-bounce scoring ability that should really blossom in his second year. Senior wing John Petty also returns to provide shooting; the 6’5” marksman was a 2nd Team All-SEC honoree last year and shot 44% from deep on 193 attempts. For his career, Petty has shot 38.6% on 606 3P attempts. Herb Jones, a 6’7” defensive specialist, will round out the starting wing corps – he brings virtually no offense, but is arguably the best defender in the conference and one of the best in the country. Jones can guard multiple spots on the floor and even when he gets beat, his ability to recover and make a good defensive play is uncanny:
Unfortunately for Bama, Jones was the only good part in an otherwise dreadful defense in 2019-20. The Tide were one of the weaker defensive teams in the SEC and ranked 317th in PPP allowed in transition. Interior fortitude was an issue, as was fouling and defensive rebounding.
Galin Smith’s transfer to Maryland hurts Bama’s interior and rebounding cause - as does Javian Davis’s transfer to Miss State - but Yale grad transfer Jordan Bruner promises to make up for the losses and more. Bruner was a 1st Team All-Ivy selection last year and one of the most sought-after grad transfers on the market this offseason. He led the Ivy in DR% and ranked 8th in block rate, which will hopefully at least somewhat translate to the SEC. Bruner’s athleticism, defensive versatility, and ability to shoot the three makes him the perfect 5-man for Oats’s offense – look for him to grace the SEC All-Newcomer Team in March.
Senior forward Alex Reese will also see plenty of time up front after starting 26 games last season. Reese is a decent shot blocker and led the conference in 2PFG% in 2019-20. Like Bruner, Reese can be deadly in the pick-n-pop, but he only shot 29.8% from distance last season. Freshman big man Alex Tchikou, a 4-star top 60 recruit, brings a ton of promise to the Bama frontline. He’s still relatively early in his basketball tuition, but Tchikou already has the skills to contribute at a DI level with his size, ball skills, and even shooting ability.
James Rojas, one of the aforementioned knee injury sufferers, should be ready to go when the season tips off in the fall. Rojas averaged 19 PPG in JUCO and earned a spot on the NJCAA All-American Team in 2018-19. He’s tough, skilled, and able to play the 3 or 4. Freshman Keon Ambrose-Hylton will push for playing time up front as well – he’s a 4-star PF out of Canada who can shoot and run the floor. Juwan Gary, the other knee injury victim, is a natural 3-man but has the strength and frame to play the 4. Gary adds even more strength and athleticism to an already athletically stacked Bama wing corps. 3-star PF Darius Miles (not that Darius Miles) will provide depth in the frontcourt.
Shifting back to the backcourt, two more recruits will look to push Quinerly, Shackelford, Petty, and Jones for minutes. Josh Primo, a top 60 recruit out of Canada, is a long 6’6” athlete tailor made for Bama’s run-n-gun system. He has significant range on his jumper and should be a menace defensively. 9th ranked JUCO prospect Keon Ellis also joins the fold in 2020-21; he’s a high-flying combo guard not unlike Primo. With an uptempo system and so many capable bodies at his disposal, Oats may dig deep into his bench this season and play a 10-man rotation.
Bottom Line: It’s weird to project a team to improve after losing its undisputed best player from a season ago, but that’s what we should expect from Alabama this year. Oats has countless morphable bodies on the wing to be one of the most athletic teams in the country and a bolstered frontcourt with the additions of Bruner, Tchikou, Rojas, Ambrose-Hylton, and Gary. Degree of success will ultimately rest on Quinerly’s shoulders. If he can even mostly live up to his pre-college hype, Alabama will be a dangerous team in the SEC and a contender for a top 5 seed in the Dance.