- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: Lester Quinones, Boogie Ellis, DJ Jeffries, Alex Lomax, Damion Baugh, Lance Thomas, Malcolm Dandridge, Jayden Hardaway
Key Losses: Precious Achiuwa, Tyler Harris, Isaiah Maurice
Key Newcomers: Moussa Cisse, Ahmad Rand (JUCO), Isaiah Stokes (Florida)
*** 8/27 - Landers Nolley has received a waiver to be immediately eligible this season. This is an enormous decision for Memphis who now becomes even more talented and even deeper. Nolley should start in some fashion for the Tigers and could potentially lead them in scoring / fight for an All-Conference spot. Memphis is the very clear #2 in the AAC now and is a very real challenger to Houston at the top.
Outlook:
Memphis was one of the most talked about and equally polarizing teams last offseason. Penny brought in the number one recruiting class leading many to proclaim the Tigers as the team to beat in the 2019-20 season. We thought that was utterly preposterous mostly due to there being no precedent outside of Calipari at Kentucky or Coach K at Duke realizing significant success with a roster made up primarily of freshmen. To boot, though Penny may indeed turn out to be a successful coach, the fact that he was in just his second season at the collegiate level gave us pause on naming the Tigers a surefire top ten team. KenPom took an even more extreme approach, ranking Memphis #51 in the preseason, which turned out to be prescient, as the Tigers finished 59th when all was said and done.
Obviously, James Wiseman’s departure from the team after only three games played a role in Memphis not realizing its full potential, as did injuries to a multitude of players including DJ Jeffries and Lester Quinones. But Memphis was so awful offensively, likely a consequence of youth more than anything, it had no business sniffing the top 25 or even an NCAA Tournament bid. Ironically, THIS is the season people everywhere should be hyping up the Tigers – with four starters making that oh-so-important leap from freshman to sophomore year plus the summer addition of top ten recruit Moussa Cisse, Penny has one of the most athletic rosters in the country, experience, and a deep bench with which to compete for an AAC title.
It’s actually shocking just how bad Memphis was offensively last season. Per KenPom, Memphis was the worst(!!) offensive team in the AAC last season and the 6th worst in AAC history from an adjusted offensive efficiency perspective. The Tigers ranked 210th in offense nationally, primarily a consequence of their sky-high turnover rate. Point guard play was a huge issue – main ball handlers Alex Lomax and Damion Baugh posted turnover rates at or above 30%. With a year under their belts, Lomax and Baugh will hopefully settle into their roles – if they don’t, the Tigers have literally nobody else to turn to.
Memphis’s scoring last year was predicated on running in transition, particularly off defensive rebounds.
The Tigers ranked 17th in the country in average offensive possession length, looking to use their superior athleticism and quickness to beat opponents down the floor.
Memphis was a good transition team but awful in the halfcourt where Penny’s spread attack wasn’t as potent as the talent suggested due to a general lack of shooting on the roster. AAC Player of the Year Precious Achiuwa was unstoppable at times but even he posted an O-rating below 100.0, and only two Tigers on the entire team posted O-ratings above 100.0. Due to the lack of shooting, Penny’s offense resorted to a dribble-drive attack that focused on getting the ball to the rim and earning trips to the free throw line.
Quinones and Boogie Ellis are the two players I’d peg to really improve offensively this season. An AAC All-Freshman selection and top 60 recruit last year, Quinones is a much better shooter than his 31.3% three-point clip showed. The lanky wing is a dynamic scorer from all three levels and ranked 5th in the league in FT rate as a freshman. As a bonus, Quinones is a proponent of the old school short-shorts look, which is the king of all basketball looks. Ellis, a top 40 recruit in the class of 2019, was the most touted addition outside of Wiseman and Achiuwa last season. While clearly talented, Ellis managed a 2P / 3P / FT shooting split of just .336 / .324 / .685. He took a ton of tough shots in his first year at Memphis – more maturity and 31 games under his belt should help him make better decisions in 2020-21.
Rounding out Penny’s backcourt will be one of the few upperclassmen on the roster in Alex Lomax, sophomore PG Damion Baugh, and Penny’s son Jayden Hardaway. Lomax ranked 5th in the conference in assist rate last season but as previously stated he liked to cough up the rock on a regular basis. On offense, Lomax is at his best when he’s attacking the basket. Baugh was lauded as an under-the-radar guy who could end up being Memphis’s best recruit. That bold and misplaced prediction did not come to fruition as the 6’3” guard posted an 85.1 O-rating and 33.9% TO rate to go with awful shooting numbers. I don’t see the same thing in Baugh many did last season – like Lomax he’s better off the bounce than shooting from deep, but he’s not a player that’s going to lead a team in scoring. Jayden Hardaway will provide wing depth to a squad heavy on frontcourt pieces.
Penny has no shortage of options at the 4 and 5 with the aforementioned Cisse, the additions of Ahmad Rand and Isaiah Stokes, and return of DJ Jeffries, Lance Thomas, and Malcolm Dandridge. Cisse is the big name of the bunch, a giant 6’10” center with a 7’4” wingspan who promises to eat shots for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. What sets Cisse apart from other big men his age is his motor and ability to run the floor, two things that will make him a great fit for Penny’s system. Jeffries is arguably the most important of this group, a former top 50-ish prospect who missed the final 11 games of last season. In those 11 contests Memphis was just 6-5 and clearly missed their athletic combo forward, a player who could guard multiple spots and stretch the floor. Thomas, formerly of Louisville, and Dandridge are two shot-blocking forwards more valuable for their defense than offense, though Thomas is developing a nice outside stroke. Rand is a top 50 JUCO prospect who led the NJCAA in blocked shots last season. He’s one of the biggest leapers I’ve ever seen on tape, able to get his head over the rim with ease. Stokes is a Florida transfer who Penny raved about in practice last season, as most coaches with sit-out transfers tend to do. Stokes offers a change of pace from the typical Memphis big – he’s of a stockier build and uses his strength and girth to take up space instead of his length.
Memphis was the 5th best defensive team in college basketball last season (per KenPom), leading the country in overall eFG% allowed and FG% allowed near the rim. Every single position on the floor was filled by a player who more often than not was athletically superior to his matchup on the other team. The Tigers pressed at the 35th highest rate in the country, a man press that was mainly token pressure to slow down opposing guards, and allowed the 11th lowest PPP on possessions where they pressed. In the halfcourt, Memphis allowed the 2nd lowest PPP of any team who played man (per Synergy). The Tigers remain ridiculously long and athletic across every position so there’s no reason to expect them to drop off significantly from last season’s defensive performance. This team is a shoo-in to rank in the top ten defensively in 2020-21 and will cause nightmares for opponents trying to score near the cup.
Bottom Line:
Memphis is one of the most talented teams in the country on paper heading into the season. The difference between this year and last year’s severely overrated squad is experience – Penny now has that in spades to pair with a freshman in Cisse who is a near-guarantee to be at least a positive impact on the defensive end. Penny’s offense may not be top 50-good, but it will almost certainly be better than 210th. A fully healthy season from Jeffries and Quinones should also help the Tigers compete near the top of the conference and give Houston a run for its money. If the NCAA grants sit-out transfers Landers Nolley and/or DeAndre Williams a waiver, LOL look out.