- Matt Cox
Note: Official 3MW picks + leans can be found at the bottom of this page in the attached photo. We also have made notes if we felt it relevant to do so - when we locked in a bet, any info we’re waiting on, etc.
(1) Michigan vs. (16) Texas Southern
Initial Thoughts: For the first 20 minutes of Mount St. Mary’s / Texas Southern, my head was the size of the Goodyear Blimp. Could I really be this prophetic?!
*Family Feud ‘X’ Horn Sound*
Then, that credibility vanished in the blink on an eye. Johnny Jones dialed up the defensive pressure, and the Mount got that deer in the headlights look.
Michigan fans didn’t really care who they drew. There’s no threat of a UMBC / Virginia 2.0 here. That said, I’m torn on which camp I’d be in: relieved that TXSO rallied late to win or annoyed that the Mount choked away a comfortable lead.
Texas Southern’s length and talent can be largely negated by most high majors. Against SWAC foes, TXSO waltzes in to every game knowing full well they are the more athletic team. It took them 20 minutes to realize that edge still held against MSM but props to Mr. Jones for jogging their memory at half and dialing up the pressure.
Perhaps you could argue this is a double edge sword situation. While the Tigers are littered with high major down transfers, that’s precisely what qualifies them to hang with another high major opponent. Plus, you don’t think guys like Marcus Weathers (Oklahoma State) and Galen Alexander (Georgetown) aren’t itching at the chance to show they can still run with their old foes?
Texas Southern on Offense: The Tigers stubbornly attacked the rim against Mount St. Mary’s in the first half. On one hand, this defied all logic. The Mount has one glaringly obvious strength and that’s size in the front court. On the other hand, TXSO’s atrocious shooting has dented rims all year long - in other words, what other choice did they have?
The Tigers were lucky to subsidize their putrid half court offense with defensive pressure. Scoring against a set Michigan defense? Lol, good luck fellas. Even without Isaiah Livers, Michigan’s length is overwhelming.
Harkening back to the Mount comparison, the Wolverines are laser focused in their defensive discipline. They do not foul and they do not miss block outs.
Michigan on Offense: What makes the Michigan offense tick is the pace of ball movement and the immediacy of decision making. Ball stoppers are barred from playing in this system. RARELY do you see the ball stick on a Michigan possession. Eli Brooks and Mike Smith set the tone in this regard, both of whom have wildly exceeded anyone’s expectations for what that backcourt would deliver this year. They attack gaps decisively off the dribble and identify the right read 99.99% of the time when they get the opposing defense in rotation.
Oh yeah, there’s also that man child up front, Hunter Dickinson, a 40-year old mountain man masquerading in an 18-year old’s body. Franz Wagner ain’t too shabby either.
Key Factor(s): Isaiah Livers absence is the obvious note here. Everyone on planet Earth has declared the East Region up for snatch grabs, largely due to Livers’ injury.
Over the last two seasons, the on / off stats are alarming. From my vantage point - that is, a handicapping vantage pint - Livers is a 4-5 point player, at minimum. There’s just no replacement for what he does on both ends.
Final Predictions: Wolverines win and cover. The spread plummeted from -27 to -25 but now is a ripe spot to counter punch with Michigan against the early steam.
(8) LSU vs. (9) St. Bonaventure
Initial Thoughts: Well hello there my beloved Bonnies. We did it. We made it. Mark Schmidt and the boys achieved the impossible: make Matt look smart. I’m not a prophet - at least not yet - but pegging the Bonnies as the #2 team in our A-10 preseason preview is a nice resume plug, if I choose to pursue that career path down the road.
As antsy as I am to pencil in the Bonnies to the 2nd Round, LSU is a tricky draw. Will Wade and his duffle bag men hauled in a sterling collection of talent over the last two summers, most of whom are still around, shockingly.
Individually, LSU’s the more talented team. But the Bonnies are plus athletes and plus plus plus on the chemistry meter, which should ultimately make all the difference.
LSU on Offense: With Trendon Watford and Javonte Smart, LSU boasts two multi-year college players with blue chip talent, capable of destroying unqualified amateurs on a nightly basis. Oddly enough, neither of them are the go-to bucket getter for the Bayou Bengals this year.
That label belongs to rookie Cam Thomas, an Oak Hill product, who’s seized the alpha dog title in his first full collegiate season. If there was a video game skill rating for ‘shot making’, Thomas would be rated a 99.
However, Thomas has the uncanny ability to drive both LSU fans and opposing fans up a wall. Armed with a next-level step back jumper, Thomas can get his shot whenever he wants. The problem is, as many LSU fans will tell you, Thomas is oftentimes overly ambitious in his shot selection, which comes at the expense of LSU’s other monster talents.
Regardless of who has the hot hand, the Bonnies’ defense is stocked with plus positional length at all five positions. Collectively, this defensive unit is qualified to corral Thomas, along with Watford, Smart and the hyper athletic Darius Days, who can light it up from distance as well.
Moreover, few teams in this tournament are as disciplined in transition defense as Bona. Schmidt will selectively send one or two bodies to the offensive glass but priority #1 is aggressively retreating back to prevent easy run outs.
LSU’s half-court offense is efficient and Schmidt will live with highlight reel shot making against a set defense. But, Bona MUST eliminate fast break opportunities to prevent a full blown LSU offensive explosion - just ask Arkansas and Auburn what that feels like...
St. Bonaventure on Offense: First off, props to Will Wade for tweaking his defensive philosophy. LSU is finally playing competent man-to-man defense, lifting the Tigers’ defense from ‘bad’ to, eh, we’ll call it ‘below average’. I guess it took Wade a while to realize the defensive upside his hyper athletic roster possesses. Watford and Days are fleet of foot forwards, who can stay with quicker guards flying off screens in pick-n-roll. For as much flack as LSU’s matador defense got this year, the Tigers’ scored quite well in a few situational metrics in Synergy. For example, LSU graded in the 95th percentile in defending ball screens, a key action initiator for Bona and a myriad of offenses they’ll see if they advance here.
Unfortunately, those incremental defensive improvements won’t move the needle against Mark Schmidt’s bible of set plays. Led by a savvy floor general in Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies execute with pinpoint precision and unwavering patience.
LSU’s pro-level athletes can sometimes cover up mental lapses on defense but those shortcuts won’t be accessible against Bona. Wade could sprinkle in zone to mix it up but that opens a whole other can of worms. Osun Osunniyi, famous for his 7’8 wingspan and nightly block parties, is a phenomenal passing big while high-flyer Jalen Adaway is a savvy cutter who lives in creases of the defense.
Key Factor(s): The Bona shooters and glass crashers.
LSU’s discombobulated zone defense was, in essence, a nightly game of Russian Roulette this year. Opponents converted just 30% from long distance against the Tigers, the 20th best clip in the country per KenPom.com, despite allowing a whopping 29 threes per game. From my vantage point, they were lucky to catch teams on off shooting nights, especially early on in the year.
The recent rekindling of a semi-competent man-to-man defense has cut out those wide open, butt naked threes. Look no further than the impressive efforts against Arkansas and Alabama in the SEC Tournament Semifinals and Finals, respectively, where they held both teams to well below their 3PT% season average.
However, LSU surrendered 35 offensive rebounds in those two games combined, which equated to a 40% offensive rebounding rate.
Rebounding 3 of every 5 shots is not gonna get it done against the Bonnies, the nation’s 31st best offensive rebounding team. ‘Shoon’s Go-Go Gadget wingspan and Adaway’s trampoline hops will be a problem if the Tigers’ don’t shore up the glass.
Final Predictions: Take this pick with a grain of salt, as I made zero attempt to hide my Bonnies’ bias. That said, I think this particular draw sets up well for Bona to cause problems for the Tigers. LSU’s individual star power is capable of rendering everything I typed above irrelevant if they’re all boiling simultaneously, but that perfect storm is a far less likely outcome. The Bonnies’ scoring attack is just too versatile and they won’t be outclassed by LSU’s size or athleticism.
(5) Colorado vs. (12) Georgetown
Initial Thoughts: I’ll just be upfront about it. I haven’t watched a ton of Georgetown basketball over the last month…
During this dark period of my Hoya hoops boycott, some guy named Chudier Bile and a young rookie sidekick named Dante Harris apparently shredded Villanova, Seton Hall and Creighton in three consecutive nights.
Anyone else see that coming?
Truth is, I neglected Georgetown basketball out of sheer disinterest and solemnly swear to never commit such a sin again.
Georgetown on Offense: To be crystal clear, Chudier Bile is a transfer from Northwestern STATE. Not Northwestern. Northwestern STATE. I guess I should’ve known the Georgetown overlords would bless Bile in the same way they did Rodney Pryor, a former NEC up-transfer who morphed into a bonafide Big East bucket getter in 2017.
Give Ewing and Bile credit. Ewing plucked Bile off the transfer wire and inserted him seamlessly alongside an established group of gritty veterans. Jahvon Blair and Jamorko Pickett won’t win any basketball beauty contests but they are sneaky good scorers from all three levels.
Up front, Qudus Wahab’s been a quiet riser as of late, Ewing’s big man protege. Once a raw project, Wahab is now a skilled low post operator thanks to Ewing’s tutelage, and he enters this opening round matchup riding a 6-game double-digit scoring streak. The Nigerian native could be a real difference-maker against a Buffs frontline that’s poor at defending the post. Even with Evan Battey’s burly frame patrolling the paint, along with a towering 7-footer in Dallas Walton, Synergy scored Colorado’s post-up defense as ‘below average’ this season.
Colorado on Offense: When McKinley Wright plays like the player we envisioned back in 2018, the Buffs are top-20, maybe even top-15, caliber. Start by zooming out to the last month of the year. Sandwiched in between two impressive wins over USC, you’ll find Colorado didn’t exactly set the world on fire. The Buffs limped past UCLA and Arizona State to close out the regular season and then nearly blew a 13-point lead to Cal in the conference tournament opener.
Still, throughout those ebbs and flows, Wright was a steady pulse for the Buffs night in and night out (save a few missed freebies in the Pac-12 title game loss). The supporting cast has wildly exceeded my expectations this season but it all starts with Wright. When the aggressive, attack-mode version of Wright shows up, this team can play with anybody.
Under head coach Tad Boyle, the Buffaloes offense seems to carry this boring, bland stigma - ‘Boyle Ball’, as it’s come to be known. The Buffs don’t specialize in any one domain, a true jack-of-all-trades type of offense. According to Synergy, Colorado did not rank in the top-100 in any of the predefined play-type categories in possession usage, evidence of a well-rounded stylistic offense that doesn’t over-index on pick-n-rolls or post ups or isolations.
Here’s what matters. From an efficiency perspective, CU ranked in the top-100 in all but two of those play type categories. Point being, Boyle’s offense may not always look sexy. But it damn well works. Jeriah Horne, D’Shawn Schwartz and Eli Parquet have ascended into dependable long range shooters, which has opened up the middle for big Evan Battey to do damage in the paint.
Key Factor: Jabari Walker, Colorado’s simmering rookie prospect. The 6’9 forward looked to be rounding back into prime form by season’s end - a foot injury put him on the shelf for six games in February - but his minutes eroded in the Pac-12 tournament. Walker is a one-of-a-kind talent on this Colorado roster, who outright dominated during a brief stretch in January. A week off to rest and recoup should be the proper antidote to revive this gem of a prospect.
Final Prediction: Colorado losing to Oregon State in the Pac-12 Championship game still irks me but this version of ‘Boyle Ball’ has my attention. The Buffs had a recurring habit of floundering early leads throughout the season but that’s all the more reason to believe they’re a prime ‘buy low’ investment.
I may regret scoffing at the recent Georgetown run, which sets up an endless number of feel good storylines if the Hoyas keep it rollin’. But, in a game where no strong matchup advantage exists for either side, I’m riding with the better team, who’s proven its worth over the course of an entire season.
(4) Florida St. vs. (13) UNC Greensboro
Initial Thoughts: While it sounds counter-intuitive, both UNC Greensboro and Florida State have causes for concern in this matchup.
UNCG carries the prototypical ‘Giant Killer’ DNA, a turnover-inducing, glass crashing squad under the direction of head coach Wes Miller. Here’s a fun fact: the Spartans are the only Division 1 team to rank in the top-100 in turnover rate and rebounding rate on both offense and defense. Winning the possession tug-of-war is the most promising path for mid-majors to pull off a Round 1 upset and the Spartans check the prerequisite boxes.
However, herein lies the rub. This shakes out to be a ‘strength on strength’ matchup against Florida State’s stable of athletes, which can negate the aforementioned competitive advantage for the Spartans. Isaiah Miller is an outlier athlete by SoCon standards but he’ll look mortal against Scottie Barnes and FSU’s rangy skywalkers.
UNC Greensboro on Offense: Everything starts and ends with Isaiah Miller. Miller’s trophy case is packed to the brim with Defensive Player of the Year hardware but he’s also the engine of the Spartans’ offense. If you compiled a 3-minute mixtape on every player in the tournament, Miller’s reel would be the one to go viral. His hammer time dunks and acrobatic jumpers are a dazzling display of talent.
But, UNCG diehards, who watch this team day in and day out, know the dark side of Miller’s offensive game. He’s prone to using his midrange jumper as a crutch, often settling for tough 2s rather than furiously attacking the rim.
Here’s one such example from the SoCon tournament. Miller rises in the middle of traffic, twisting nearly 90 degrees mid-air for a low percentage look early in the shot clock. I adore Miller and his infectious energy but there’s no justification for taking this shot:
Another nitpick about Miller is that he’s extremely ball dominant. I’d blame Miller for ignoring his teammates but, in Miller’s defense, the Spartans’ supporting cast was ice cold this season. Guys like Keyshaun Langley, Kaleb Hunter and Angelo Allegri didn’t cash in on their opportunities, all victims of the unforgiving regression monster.
As a result, Spartans have been doing the bulk of their damage inside against smaller and less athletic SoCon foes. From Florida State’s lens, this is where the recent emergence of Balsa Koprivica is a revelation. The 7’1 Serbian is the latest in a long line of Seminole giants, and is starting to master the craft of rim protection. The last few weeks exemplify his transformation into a defensive stalwart. Koprivica was especially dominant in the ACC Tournament, posting back to back double doubles, to go along with 6 blocks in 53 minutes of action.
Florida State on Offense: This is a pick your poison problem for Wes Miller. The Spartans’ length and agility on the perimeter is capable of suffocating any mid-major offense in the country.
The problem is, Florida State’s Olympian-level athletes are just on a different plane. If you haven’t seen the ‘Noles play this season, you’ll quickly notice the typical Leonard Hamilton cloned army of 6’6 - 6’8 wings. The difference this year is that they can shoot.
Only Scottie Barnes, the soon-to-be lottery pick, can be left alone from the outside but he’s the primary attacker in the offense. The 6’9 Barnes, along with Raiquan Gray (6’8), form a deadly, two-pronged point-forward attack who can make plays traditional point guards can’t. Their superior size allows them to see over the defense and finish over shorter defenders.
Florida State’s deadeye shooters (MJ Walker, Anthony Polite, Malik Osborne and Sadaar Calhoun) prevent UNCG from simply crowding the lane in shell form, but going under on ball screens, especially when Barnes is initiating, is one wrinkle that could be effective.
Key Factor: Florida State’s fate lies in the hands of its transition defense and ball security. UNC Greensboro’s over-reliance on Miller to make plays in the half-court severely limits the offensive versatility, which will be a major impediment to scoring against the ‘Noles massive perimeter length in the half-court.
That leaves the Spartans one out to score efficiently: Transition. Be it via defensive steals or long rebounds, UNCG should look to pounce on any and all fast break opportunities. Scoring against a backpedalling and disoriented ‘Noles defense will be mission critical in Miller’s game plan.
Final Predictions: Leonard Hamilton’s been dealt a few bad hands in his opening round draws the last few years and this one is no exception. Look back to 2018, when the Seminoles were pinned against Florida Gulf Coast, a team with big athletic guards and formidable size up front. FSU managed to escape by a touchdown in that game and I see this one playing out in a similar fashion. UNCG doesn’t pose any X&O matchup problems for FSU, but they can be a thorn in their side for 40 minutes.
Bottom line: I’d be stunned if Florida State doesn’t advance here but Greensboro should be immune to a vintage Florida State wrecking ball performance (read: the 11-point spread is razor sharp).
(6) BYU vs. (11) Michigan St. / UCLA
Under construction!
(3) Texas vs. (14) Abilene Christian
Initial Thoughts: Joe Golding is one of the best coaches no one knows about. Abilene was once the new kid in town, making it’s Division I debut back in 2014. Now, they’re a perennial Southland contender (and soon to be a WAC contender with the pending conference upgrade next season).
Proof that Abilene can hang with Texas can be found in their only true tests of the season: non-conference tilts against Texas Tech and Arkansas. Golding had Chris Beard trembling in his boots when the two squared off in Lubbock on December 9th - ACU held a narrow 1-point lead with eight minutes remaining in regulation. Two weeks later, the Wildcats were back to their pesky ways in Fayetteville. They dug themselves an early hole but ended up playing the Razorbacks to a draw over the final 30 minutes (though, still lost by 13).
Hey Texas, did I make myself clear? This team is no joke. Yes, Kentucky did steamroll Abilene in the 2018 tournament but this 2021 squad is a super deluxe version of that team.
Texas on Offense: All that said, as much as it pains me to go against Golding, I am banging the gavel in Texas’ favor. The disconnect between that Texas Tech precedent and this matchup with the Longhorns is that TTU was a willing participant in a low 50s mud fight. To Shaka Smart’s credit, he’s unleashed his horses with no restrictions this season, letting those springy athletes gallop in transition and jump over people. The Longhorns rank 62nd in average offensive possession length, per KenPom, the fastest rate Texas has played at offensively since Smart took over in 2015.
If the Longhorn guards 1) attack early and often in transition 2) take care of the basketball and 3) resist taking the stupid mid-range jumpers they love so much, Texas wins going away.
ACU’s guards are like little mice scurrying all over the floor. They scramble and recover in a sort of organized chaos, which produced turnovers on 26.7% of all defensive possessions, tops in the country. Courtney Ramey, Matt Coleman and Andrew Jones must be precise with the basketball. Otherwise, they’ll end up with a lot of possessions looking like this:
Abilene Christian on Offense: For the first two months of the season, I had chalked up ACU’s white hot start to unsustainable 3-point shooting. Turns out, I was partially correct.
ACU’s 3-point shooting splits did deteriorate down the stretch ever so slightly. But, the corresponding skid I thought might follow never came. Instead, ACU just kept winning. Big.
My detective work points to the following explanation. ACU’s immunity to 3-point shooting regression stems from their 3-point shooting balance. In other words, the Wildcats don’t put all their eggs in one basket.
This is a wild stat: Nine different Wildcats this season knocked down 10 or more triples but no single player made more than 30. Process that for a second...
Think of it as a well diversified portfolio. While one or two players could go cold on any given night, the likelihood of 5, 6 or even 7 dudes having off nights is highly unlikely.
Now, it still can happen. One such example was when Sam Houston State knocked off ACU in the regular season, aided by the Wildcats converting just 3-for-19 from downtown. However, one of ACU’s top snipers, Coryon Mason, did not play in that game.
The aptly named Reggie Miller and the cat quick Damien Daniels round out the Wildcats’ backcourt triumvirate, along with Mayson. Their primary responsibility is to ignite the swarming perimeter pressure defensively but they are rock solid on offense as well. They know where their bread is buttered, which is inside through 7-footer Kolton Kohl or 6’8 Joe Pleasant.
Key Factor(s): However, this is where ACU likely runs into a brick wall. Texas’ NBA-sized frontline won’t bat an eye at Kohl and Pleasant. As long as Shaka has his ducks in a row schematically - Golding’s patented high-low action can be tough to cover - the Longhorns’ size will be too overwhelming.
Golding may look to leverage Pleasant’s versatility by stretching him out beyond the 3-point arc (Clay Gayman is another versatile forward at his disposal). But, again, Greg Brown and Kai Jones aren’t your run of the mill forwards. They fly around the floor like gazelles on pogo sticks, which limits the damage ACU can do in pick-n-pop.
Final Prediction: My boyish basketball fandom can’t help but root for ACU here. But at the end of the day, I’m a professional. My heart is bleeding purple but my head is telling me Horns with conviction. After an untimely COVID pause in January, Texas has rekindled shades of that top-10 caliber squad we saw way back in November. If that version shows up on Saturday, ACU could be in a world of hurt.
(7) Connecticut vs. (10) Maryland
Initial Thoughts: Mark Turgeon’s last two NCAA Tournaments have not gone accordingly to plan. Despite securing a 6-seed in 2017 and 2019, the Terrapins fell short of the second weekend both trips.
However, I’m sort of buying into the Turtle mojo this time around. It’s got that quintessential underdog, ‘no one believes in us’ vibe, which permeated throughout the final two months of the season.
Unfortunately, this is a rough draw for the Turgeon and Co. UConn is a legitimate Final Four sleeper in this wide open region, aided by a favorable draw since Michigan all of a sudden looks vulnerable.
Connecticut on Offense: Here’s a breakdown of UConn’s offensive formula. Follow the decision tree carefully…
Is James Bouknight on fire?
Yes
Terrific! Ride that heat wave baby!
No
No worries! Just keep feeding him until he catches fire…
Simultaneously, invade the offensive glass like the beaches of Normandy and compile as many extra shots for Mr. Bouknight as possible.
Return to start of loop
Most Big East coaches know this. The difference is, most don’t have a defensive stalwart like Darryl Morsell in their back pocket.
The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year has never been much of a threat on the other end of the floor but a career-long commitment to clamping down on D has earned him a full-time starting spot for four straight seasons. I honestly can’t remember the last time Moresell was not on the floor for Maryland. Are we sure he didn’t play with Greivis Vasquez?
Circling back to that decision tree loop, Maryland has a shutdown corner in Morsell ready to check Bouknight. But, even if the Terps take away Bouknight completely, the Huskies can manufacture their points on the offensive glass. Tyrese Martin, Adama Sanogo and Isaiah Whaley are the gritty garbage men inside Maryland needs to watch out for. The Terps are solid gang rebounders but, even in the Big Ten, they haven't faced a team this committed to chasing down missed shots.
Maryland on Offense: ‘Interchangeable’ is the word that comes to mind. When your 5-man is less than 2- inches taller than your point guard, that’s true actualization of multi-positional basketball, all the rage in today’s modern game.
Turgeon’s tactical coaching chops have been put under the microscope in year’s past. This year, he aced that schematic test.
Turgeon implemented a stylistic makeover midway through the season, prompted by a dismal 1-5 start in conference play. The key level pull was sliding Hakim Harm into the point guard stead, alleviating the offensive admin work for bucket getters Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala.
After that monumental 66-63 win over Illinois, the Turtle was ‘off to the races’. From that point on, Maryland played like a legitimate top-25 team, as indicated by BartTorvik’s efficiency time filter tool:
Here’s the other side of the coin. That fierce Husky frontline won’t disrupt Maryland’s inverted offense, keyed by inverse forward Donta Scott. UConn’s Isaiah Whaley took home a DPOTY trophy of his own in the Big East but Scott can pull the Huskies’ shot-blocking specialist away from the restricted area, opening up the lane for drivers and cutters.
Key Factor: The Huskies got a big time break in their draw, not because of who they’re playing but when. Why? The concussion protocol timeline. Because UConn plays on Saturday, as opposed to Friday, starting guard RJ Cole has one extra day to clear the return to play hurdles.
Outside of Bouknight, UConn’s starved for complementary creators and shooters. Tyler Polley can get hot but he’s more or less a one-trick-pony. Outside of that, Cole is the only other dependable offensive contributor.
Final Prediction: Turgeon’s ability to keep up with the Big Ten Joneses, devoid of a bruising big inside, is extremely impressive. Are the Terps still vulnerable up front? Absolutely. But you can’t say this group isn’t battle tested against larger, physical frontcourts, precisely what they’re running into with UConn. The Terps are getting severely overlooked in my opinion but they may have run into a Husky buzzsaw here.
(2) Alabama vs. (15) Iona
Initial Thoughts: Rick Pitino can still coach, folks. In the postgame press conference after Iona clinched it’s 198th consecutive MAAC Tournament title, Pitno cited his time in Greece as a tremendous learning opportunity. At the ripe age of 65 - don’t NOT call him old, he will eviscerate you for such slander - it’s scary to think Pitino is still making tweaks to his illustrious playbook.
Pitino’s return to the ring has been marred by one of the worst COVID disruptions any team in America experienced. The Gaels pulled off the improbable, winning four straight games to clinch the MAAC Championship fresh out of a 3-week pause.
The fairy tale run is due to expire this weekend with Alabama waiting in the wings. If Iona somehow pulls off the improbable, I’ll quickly erase any mention of the prior sentence but betting the Gaels to outright beat Nate Oats and Roll Damn Tide is dead money.
Alabama on Offense: I think we all know the drill here. Bama plays like it’s shot out of cannon, flying up and down the floor for 40 consecutive minutes. Oats is the Billy Beane of college basketball, a poster child for the extreme embracement of analytic-designed basketball.
Here are those pillars in a nutshell: 3-pointers and layups = good. Anything else = bad.
A shooting rut tripped up the Tide during non-conference but those triples started to fall against SEC foes. Alabama checked in with the league’s 2nd best offense and finished with the league’s best 3-point shooting clip (37.8%).
If Bama gets hot, someone should call the fight before the first TV timeout. The Tide could beat Iona by 50 if they string together a flurry of threes, as we’ve witnessed countless times this season. But if they go cold, they may have issues scoring at the rim. Oats’ steadfast commitment to scoring in and around the restricted area at all costs can backfire against premier shot blockers - in fact, no team in America had a higher percentage of shots blocked this season than Alabama.
Iona’s rookie center, Nelly Junior Joseph, was the star of Iona’s clinching 60-51 victory over Fairfield, anchoring the Gaels’ stingy backend defense. He’s still a work in progress in the grand scheme but is a respectable rim protector right now, capable of bothering Bama’s perpetual rim onslaught.
Iona on Offense: Rick Pitino is a guard whisperer. Ashtante Gist’s developmental arc this season is evidence of Pitino’s brilliance. On top of the multiple COVID shutdowns, Gist dealt with a hand and back injury throughout the year. Some coaches may have shied away from a seismic position change but Pitino saw potential in Gist as a lead guard - prior to this season, he played almost exclusively off the ball.
Gist’s willingness to embrace his new role buoyed Iona’s offense immediately, which was devoid of any pure point guards. The move had a ripple effect on the entire team, as roles quickly fell into place. Isaiah Ross was the main benefactor, the Gaels’ top long range marksman, who lit up the scoreboard with Gist setting the table for him.
Pitino’s revamped offense utilizes a series of off-ball cutting actions, which has been somewhat of a double-edged sword this year. While the movement generates easy layups against unsuspecting defenses, it also requires high-risk passes that are prone to turnovers. Ball security was the biggest bugaboo for the Gaels this season, which must be avoided at all costs against the Crimson Tide. Any live ball turnovers will be promptly converted into points, expediting the inevitable blow out.
Key Factor: Jahvon Quinerly, hands down. With Josh Primo banged up (hurt MCL) and Jordan Bruner still rusty after returning from his injury, Alabama’s depth is slowly dwindling. Quinerly is the ‘Easy’ button Oats can push in case of emergency, and he’s slammed that button often the last few weeks.
Since February, Quinerly’s averaging 15 points and 3 assists per game in a hyper efficient manner (116 O-Rating over that span), despite clocking a meager 26 minutes a contest:
If you can find a longshot prop bet for the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player, Quinerly is worth a look. If the Tide march to the Final 4, Quinerly could be the reason why.
Final Predictions: I give Iona next to zero chance of advancing to the 2nd Round but they should be a live dog from a gambling lens. Pitino won’t even think about engaging in a track meet with the Tide’s shooters and speedsters and the Gaels’ underrated frontline is qualified to bother shots at the tin. My only concern is the turnover bug returning to bite Gist and Ross, especially against Bama’s high-end athletes, but I’ll put that to the backburner in favor of the Pitino factor.
Official 3MW Picks
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