-Jim Root, Matt Cox
Note: Official 3MW picks + leans can be found at the bottom of this page in the attached photo. We also have made notes if we felt it relevant to do so - when we locked in a bet, any info we’re waiting on, etc.
(1) Gonzaga vs. (16) TBD
-JR
Initial Thoughts: There’s no competition here, really – it’s simply a matter of how locked in Gonzaga is for this one. The Zags rolled to a perfect 26-0 regular season finish, winning only one game by single-digits despite playing 14 games against Q1/Q2 competition.
We obviously don’t know who the Zags will play yet as of this writing/publishing, but we do know that Gonzaga will be a monster favorite (at least 25 points, probably closer to 30). Hard to envision either team sticking around for longer than 10 minutes.
Gonzaga on Offense: I have a feeling we’ll be writing more about the Zags’ offense in this tournament, so I don’t want to go too far into detail here in what should be a blowout. Gonzaga has multiple dynamic shot creators dotting the perimeter, perhaps the best shooter in the country in Corey Kispert (who has embraced playing as a stretch 4 full-time), and a devastatingly efficient post scorer on the block (Timme ranks in the 98th percentile on a PPP basis). The half court offense has almost no weaknesses; the ball movement and spacing is nearly impossible to defend given that every player can go for 20+ on a given night.
Norfolk State can at least throw different looks at Gonzaga (zone, pressure), but there’s no reason to believe the Zags won’t shred all of that to ribbons. Neither team can defend Timme inside without excessive doubling, and if you’re in rotations against Gonzaga, you’ve already lost. The Mountaineers and Spartans can only hope for a disinterested Zags team that isn’t making shots, and even then, the Bulldogs can probably get to 90 in this one on auto-pilot.
Norfolk St. / Appalachian St. on Offense: Gonzaga’s offense is essentially perfect, which means you’re going to have to score efficiently to beat them. BYU racked up 1.11 points per possession in the WCC final while giving Gonzaga a scare, and the Cougars didn’t even have a great shooting day – 11-for-28 is good, but it’s not the kind of 50% day that beating the Zags might demand.
Neither 16-seed has anything resembling a big man capable of punishing Gonzaga where it’s weakest: in the paint. Timme is surrendering over a point per possession when guarding post ups, and the Zags ranked in the 19th percentile nationally defending them as a team. App State basically never plays through the block (317th nationally in frequency), and Norfolk’s JJ Matthews isn’t quite good enough to punish this vulnerability.
Sidenote – I’m going to climb on a soap box quick and criticize Timme’s first half “effort” against BYU. You can’t tell me this is the best he’s capable of:
He looked like he had concrete in his shoes, it was weird. The Zags are too good offensively for that to matter early on, but he’ll need to be better if Gonzaga wants to avoid an upset in later rounds.
Lacking interior threats means both play-in candidates need to score on the perimeter, which is rather difficult against Gonzaga’s long and agile backcourt. Both Norfolk and App State are anchored by impressive guard trios, but this is another level of competition. They’ll be able to hit some shots, but those shots will mostly be challenged, so I don’t envision either team breaking 65 unless the tempo goes haywire (like Gonzaga’s wacky 116-88 win over Portland that had 79 possessions). Both 16-seed coaches are too smart to let that happen anways.
Key Factor(s): Well, the first key factor is obviously who wins the play-in game. Appalachian State is more talented and has a terrific coach in Dustin Kerns, and although Norfolk is also in good hands on the sideline with Rob Jones, the Mountaineers probably have a better shot of getting the inevitable “Gonzaga is only up 5 with five minutes left in the first half?!” buzz going.
The other key factor, as lame as it sounds, is Gonzaga’s interest level in a nuclear destruction. If the Zags have the mindset of, “we finally are here at the Big Dance after toiling in relative obscurity for two months while people talked ish about our schedule, let’s go scorched earth,” then they’ll win by 45. But if they’re more in “let’s just get the win and save ourselves for the wars to come,” then the margin could just sit at 20 all game. Perhaps the early minutes will give us an indication; if you are an avid live bettor, keep an eye on this.
Final Prediction: I probably won’t be able to back Gonzaga at the number I’m expecting to see (around 29-30 against App State, 32ish against Norfolk State). Both underdogs are too well-coached and play too hard to totally roll over and die, and the Zags may limit the minutes of its primary seven-man rotation in what will almost certainly be a blowout. It’s probably dog or nothing for me on the side, although Gonzaga first half will be given some consideration, at least. No real feel for the total until I see the number.
(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Missouri
-JR
Initial Thoughts: Welcome to the battle of “we beat some really good teams…and that’s it!” Between them, Missouri and Oklahoma hold the following top flight victories: Illinois, Alabama, Alabama, @ Tennessee, Kansas, @ Texas, @ Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ Florida.
Good lord! That’s nine combined Q1A wins, demonstrating just how potent these two can be against elite competition. The rest of their resumes doomed them to the dreaded 8 vs. 9 slot, though, as Oklahoma managed to have zero Q2 wins (actually played zero Q2 games), while Mizzou went just 2-3 against Q2 competition and lagged well behind its win profile in all analytical rankings. Were the looming one seed anyone but Gonzaga, I’d say this is a scary Round 2
Of course, one of these two needs to win what qualifies as a Q2 game to get there…
Oklahoma on Offense: Boomer Sooner’s offense starts with Austin Reaves, the baby-faced assassin. Reaves is a terrific one-on-one scorer, using a variety of hesitations and fakes to get himself into advantageous positions on the court. He’s especially adept at drawing contact with his funky game, helping him rank 66th nationally in free throw rate:
That’s the first challenge for Missouri’s defense, and honestly, it’s one that could give OU trouble. Missouri has multiple big guards to throw at Reaves, most notably SEC All-Defensive team honoree Dru Smith and high energy wing Javon Pickett. Smith needs to avoid biting on those Reaves fakes; Mizzou cannot afford its best two-way player getting in foul trouble.
Problem is, OU coach Lon Kruger is an expert at attacking mismatches (we call him the Mismatch Magician), and he’s going to get Reaves (and De’Vion Harmon) switched onto bigs as often as possible via a constant diet of ball screens. That’s an issue for Mizzou, who has struggled mightily against PnR ball-handlers this year, ranking in the 38th percentile nationally, mostly due to bigs that struggle to guard in space (Jeremiah Tilmon in particular).
However, if Mizzou does not switch, that leaves them exposed to Brady Manek pick-and-pops, a lethal variation of Kruger’s typical PnR schemes. Lineups with Manek as the nominal center are absolutely lethal, scoring at an excellent 1.12 PPP on an adjusted basis, per hoop-explorer.com (1.05 PPP in other alignments). Mizzou would be more able to defend that action without Tilmon on the floor, but…
Missouri on Offense: …That would rob the Tigers of their best offensive weapon in this one. Oklahoma’s lack of size makes it very vulnerable to dominant post scorers; look no further than Derek Culver’s 29-point, 14-rebound explosion in a 2OT game on Feb. 13. Tilmon can be dominant inside if fed steadily, using his combination of size, strength, and deft footwork to bury foes in the paint:
The offense often forgets he exists, though, as the guards and wings get perimeter shots up, forcing Tilmon to chase offensive boards to get touches.
That is doubly concerning against Kruger’s extremely compact man-to-man scheme. OU does not allow driving lanes, instead forcing opponents to shooter over the top to score, a strong strategy against Missouri’s, um, streaky outside shooting (32.0% for the year). Will Mark Smith and Xavier Pinson actually make 3s? The answer looms large over this game’s result.
Two other problem areas: Oklahoma does not foul, ranking 12th nationally in defensive free throw rate, possibly eliminating a vital source of offense for the Tigers, and the OU defense is tough to beat in transition, forcing Missouri to execute in the half court.
Key Factor(s): It’s probably a little cruel to say it about my alma mater, but Oklahoma has a distinct coaching edge here. Missouri’s shot selection can be frustrating, which leads back to Cuonzo’s laissez-faire approach to offense, which has left Mizzou prone to prolonged offensive droughts. Outside of one surprise run to the Sweet 16 with a play-in team, has not won an NCAA Tournament game, and doing so against a masterful game planner in Kruger feels like a tall task.
Final Prediction: This one feels like a slugfest. Mizzou’s defense has individual answers for Reaves, and although Kruger has some curveballs he can throw, taking away the Sooners’ fastball is tremendously important. The Tigers’ ability to hit shots over Oklahoma’s tight-knit defense on the other end will dictate their ability to compete here.
(5) Creighton vs. (12) UCSB
-JR
Initial Thoughts: What the heck happened, Creighton? The Bluejays rolled through their Big East quarterfinal, squeaked by a game UConn team in the semis, and then…threw up all over the floor against Georgetown in the Big East final? Yes, that result devastated bubble teams everywhere, but it’s also concerning that the Bluejays laid by far their biggest egg of the season in such a big game (numbers per Haslametrics.com):
On the opposite end of the spectrum, UCSB rolled in the Big West championship game, exorcising its UC Irvine demons in the most satisfying way possible. The Gauchos were a sneaky machine this year, winning 18 of their last 19 games and building top 85 units on both sides of the ball.
Creighton on Offense: The offense is usually the story with Creighton, and it’s justifiable – under Greg McDermott, the Jays run exquisite offense predicated on timing and skill, weaponizing the shooting and array of ball-handlers that their lineup features. Unsurprisingly, Creighton ranks highly in both effective field goal percentage and turnover rate, creating high value shots and refusing to waste possessions.
That will be tested against UCSB, an athletic team overflowing with down-transfers capable of playing right with the Bluejays. Joe Pasternack’s team takes away the three-point line and disrupts ball-handlers, ranking highly in both defensive 3PA rate and opponent assist rate – areas where Creighton’s offense excels.
I’m especially curious to see how UCSB handles versatile big man Christian Bishop, whose abilities as a roll man and lob threat are nearly impossible contain. He’s especially dangerous slipping screens against bigs who are too focused on containing Creighton’s lethal ball-handlers:
He’s further weaponized by the weakside action that’s constantly happening in McDermott’s system, and having a sniper like Mitch Ballock make it nearly impossible to sag and help. UCSB plays two “true” big guys (though Miles Norris is fairly versatile), and the speed of Bishop and Denzel Mahoney/Damien Jefferson could give the bigger UCSB lineup problems.
Marcus Zegarowski has also looked healthy of late, a key development considering how he seemed to lack burst earlier in the year. When he’s on, he’s an All-American-caliber player, and even UCSB’s outstanding backcourt can’t measure up to that. Pasternack can throw Devearl Ramsey’s quickness or Josh Pierre-Louis’ length at him, but if he’s right, it won’t matter.
UCSB on Offense: For a team with so much transfer talent, it’s surprising to see UCSB’s offense more of an execution-based precision scheme. Pasternack runs a lot of sets designed to get star guard JaQuori McLaughlin in attack mode or powerful big man Amadou Sow in advantageous matchups inside.
Creighton has dealt with opponents trying to play bully ball inside all year, but the Bluejays are actually an outstanding post up defense, slotting in the 86th percentile nationally per Synergy. Bishop and freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner may not be the strongest duo at this point, but they’re both long and smart, and they play angles well to force foes into difficult shots. Simply using Sow as a battering ram inside probably won’t work as well as one might think.
McLaughlin, the Big West Player of the Year, is the game-breaker as a guy who can score at all three levels, with or without the ball; McDermott will certainly wish he still had the lockdown services of Ty-Shon Alexander for this one. Zegarowski has actually held up quite well on defense this year, though, and McDermott likely opts to have the bigger Mahoney blanket McLaughlin for stretches as well.
Crucially, Creighton is an elite transition defense (at least in terms of volume surrendered), eschewing the offensive glass to get back behind the ball, and that’s also aided by the Jays’ lack of turnovers. UCSB will run selectively, but the Gauchos may not find many openings against this savvy Bluejay squad.
Key Factor(s): As much as we’d love to ignore injuries and pretend they don’t exist, we must acknowledge them, and UCSB is dealing with a key one entering the tournament. Starting wing Ajare Sanni, a dangerous scorer and shooter, is nursing an ankle injury that sidelined him for most of the second half of the win over UC Irvine. On/off numbers don’t paint him as an earth-shaking player, but when stepping up in competition – especially against a backcourt as deep as Creighton’s – UCSB will be much better served to be at full strength. He’s currently reported to be day-to-day.
Final Prediction: This game is one of the three or four contests that I’ve had the toughest time with in the first round. UCSB is absolutely legitimate, and Creighton has some vulnerabilities against the Gauchos’ length (see: two Georgetown losses), particularly if the perimeter shots aren’t falling. On the other hand, I make this line higher than where it currently sits and I don’t know the status of Sanni. In my quest to have a wager on all 32 games, this one will probably be one of my latest decisions.
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Ohio
-JR
Initial Thoughts: Following a “no contest” withdrawal from the ACC Tournament due to COVID issues within the program, Virginia enters this event on shaky ground. For that reason (and a few others), many circled the Cavaliers as a team needing to be on upset alert in the first round, and I have to admit that when Greg “Let’s Rumble” Gumbel revealed the Wahoos’ matchup against Ohio, I cringed for the Cavs.
Ohio is led by a terrific coach in Jeff Boals, and the Bobcats are loaded with burgeoning young talent all over the court. Star guard Jason Preston earned headlines after nearly toppling mighty Illinois in Champaign right after Thanksgiving (reminder: he had 31 points, six rebounds, and eight assists with zero turnovers against Ayo Dosunmu and the boys), but it’s the supporting cast that makes Ohio a true threat to pull the upset here, and it seems a large swath of brackets will be making that selection.
Despite this public perspective, Virginia’s 4-seed was well-earned this season, and this particular Tony Bennett squad surprisingly tilts towards the offensive end of the court.
Virginia on Offense: After some extensive dabbling in continuity ball screen looks, Virginia is mostly back to the mover/blocker this year, working to get Sam Hauser open off screens or in advantageous matchups in the mid-post. The attention he draws also opens things up for Jay Huff, who has emerged as a legitimate offensive star in his role as a pick-and-pop threat, a finisher inside, and a one-man band on the offensive glass. This is mover/blocker at its finest – Huff sets a down screen, Reece Beekman curls it to engage Huff’s defender, Huff rolls into the space and gets rewarded:
Ohio is all man-to-man on defense under Boals, but the effectiveness of that scheme comes and goes. Ben Vander Plas will likely get first crack at Hauser, though I’d guess Boals will throw Ben Roderick and/or Lunden McDay (aka McDirtyWork, per Ohio’s broadcast team) on him at times until he repeatedly burns them in the post. Vander Plas and Hauser actually grew up 90 minutes away from each other in central Wisconsin, so there may be some familiarity between the two via the AAU circuit.
Elsewhere, Burly big man Dwight Wilson has been a beast on the glass after transferring from James Madison, but he’s not an intimidating presence at the rim, and this roster is entirely bereft of shot-blocking. Unsurprisingly, that’s a major vulnerability of the Ohio defense, and though Virginia lacks slashers, the Hoos will work their way inside via execution (a big Huff game feels likely).
Ohio has been quite poor against pick-and-roll ball-handlers this year, but with Virginia gravitating away from continuity ball screen, that weakness may not get exposed. Kihei Clark will once again be at a size disadvantage against the lanky Preston, but that rarely bothers the unflappable junior.
Ohio on Offense: What a duel this will be. Ohio has basically everything you’d want in a prototype offense: a true maestro at point guard, shooting at on the wings (Roderick and McDay) and in the frontcourt (Vander Plas is lethal), and an efficient interior scorer who can score one-on-one or off dishes. It’s not surprising the Bobcats’ Synergy page looks like this:
Ohio is also capable of pristine offensive execution, and if Clark is on Preston, expect to see Boals invert the offense some to get easy buckets inside:
Preston missed a few games around Christmas, and his absence allowed freshman Mark Sears to emerge into a trustworthy part of the rotation. Sears allows Preston to play off ball at times, where his intelligent movement and funky floater game becomes even more potent.
Virginia’s pack line will limit dribble penetration and has been superb against PnR, but Ohio is more than capable of shooting over the top, so if the shots are falling, the Bobcats can definitely score here.
Unfortunately, UVA’s scheme and personnel completely takes away transition and the offensive glass, so Ohio’s half court execution becomes even more crucial.
Key Factor(s): Virginia will be arriving late to the NCAA Tournament bubble, per reports, and we don’t even know at this point who will be making the trip. It’s hard to expect the Hoos to be full strength at this point, but even a fully loaded roster will be dealing with missed practice time in the week leading up to this game. This isn’t a long pause, which helps – those have been markedly more damaging this year, per data – but it’s a crucial edge that could tip the scales towards the Bobcats.
Another quick note: Virginia nearly lost at home to a similar caliber MAC squad (healthy Kent State back in early December), and that was with Kent St. shooting just 28.1% from beyond the arc. This is a danger zone.
Final Prediction: Just because a lot of people are picking an upset does not make it wrong, I tell myself over and over. Virginia’s tempo leaves them vulnerable to a giant killing, and Ohio has the offensive weaponry to put up points against the pack line. Virginia’s own prolific perimeter shooting packs a punch too, so Ohio needs to be locked in on that end (or as close to locked in as they are capable), but I will be backing the Bobcats and their impressive recent form here.
(6) USC vs. (11) Drake
Initial Thoughts: Darian DeVries and his halftime secret stuff fueled another furious Drake comeback over the Shockers. Drake continues to defy the odds, despite Tank Hemphill being a shell of himself in his much anticipated return.
Now, a daunting Trojan frontline awaits the pesky Bulldogs.
Drake on Offense: Spacing. That’s the only counter to the Mobley brothers and the suffocating length USC’s defense poses. Attacking those trees at the summit is not a recipe for success. DeVries could consider going extreme, perhaps with Tremell Murphy as the quasi-5 in a super small lineup with five shooters on the floor. That will leave a gaping hole inside on the other end of the floor but that’s the trade off Drake may need to make to stay in this fight.
USC on Offense: I am still grappling with the fact that a former SEMO transfer (Tahj Eaddy) and former Rice transfer (Drew Peterson) are indispensable parts on a fringe top-15 basketball team. Obviously playing along side an alien distraction in Mobley helps but Eaddy and Peterson have been magnificent from start to finish.
Quite simply, if they make shots, USC wins going away. Drake will have to bend their entire defensive structure toward Mobley, which should part the seas for Eaddy and Peterson.
Key Factor(s): The Bulldogs must rekindle their pristine passing and ball movement, which was MIA for large stretches against Wichita. The ball stuck far too often against the Shockers, who rarely had to defend in rotations. The spread-out dribble drive attack can put the Trojans on their heels but ‘my turn, your turn’ iso ball isn’t gonna cut it. As gorgeous as Joseph Yesufu’s float game is, he needs to be more decisive at the point of attack. Far too many possessions end in Yesufu hero ball for the weapons he has around him.
Final Predictions: The world seems to have declared Drake dead on arrival. Color me skeptical. I think DeVries is too good a coach to let USC run them out of the gym but this Trojan squad has been criminally under-appreciated all season long. USC wins, Drake covers.
(3) Kansas vs. (14) Eastern Washington
Initial Thoughts: Phew, did the Jayhawks dodge a bullet. Per Jon Rothstein, David McCormack will officially be arriving in Indy this Friday after clearing COVID protocols, which means Kansas gets its enforcer back for the opening round bout with Eastern Washington.
*Exhales*
However, that still doesn’t cure the crushing losses of Jalen Wilson and Tristan Enaruna, who will both be MIA for the opening weekend. Wilson is the one who matters, the Jayhawks’ do-everything wing / forward / whatever positional label you feel like slapping on his chest.
Simple math implies Kansas is left with a 7-man rotation for the second game in a row - Wilson is out and McCormack, who missed the Big-12 Tournament win over Oklahoma, is in.
Eastern Washington on Offense: Bill Self was relieved to see Kansas pop up on the left side of the bracket, giving the Jayhawks one extra day to practice with their entire squad. Normally, I wouldn’t put much stock in this dynamic. Kansas could roll out of bed and smack most 14-seeds.
But this Eastern Washington draw is tricky. The Eagles’ highly unorthodox offense requires meticulous preparation to fully grasp all of its nuance. EWU will prey on any disjointedness in the Jayhawks’ defense, amplifying the need for an unimpeded practice schedule. McCormack won’t even be in Nap Town until Friday. That leaves KU only one practice with all hands on deck.
Similar to GCU’s offensive sequencing, the Eagles like to operate from inside-out. Shantay Legans’ playbook of sets features a myriad of different ways to get the ball inside to Tanner Groves. Groves reminds me of a poor man’s Drew Timme. His motor is always on high, relentlessly jockeying for position in the lane. He’s skilled with both hands and is an excellent distributor. However, shoving around Big Sky defenders is like taking a geometry test to prepare for a Calculus final. David McCormack is an alien compared to those dwarfs.
Tyler Roberson is the other post-up outlet, a 6’6 tweener with next-level vision. This is the matchup to key in on, especially with Jalen Wilson out of the mix. Mitch Lightfoot could draw this assignment. He holds a size advantage over Roberson, but he’ll have to veer out of the paint to contest Roberson’s silky jumper when EWU inverts their bigs. Roberson checked in with EWU’s best 3-point percentage this season but all 10 guys can drill it from deep. Any lethargic KU closeouts will be promptly punished.
Kansas on Offense: At times, this side of the ball has been an eyesore for the Jayhawks this season. Devoid of a game breaking lead guard, KU has been caught in a stylistic no man’s land. Sometimes, McCormack is the focal point, a throwback to Self’s 2-big lineups of old. Other times, Kansas employs a spread out attack, predicated on drive and kick sequencing from the perimeter. Without Wilson, the latter becomes tough to replicate.
My advice? Don’t get cute, Self. Feed your interior meal ticket early and often. I will gush over EWU’s frontline in a second but they don’t stand a chance 1-v-1 against McCormack in the post.
It’s possible Legans anticipates this and audibles with a zone, as the Eagles have shown on 15% of all defensive possessions this year. Again, Wilson’s absence looms large here, a well-rounded trigger man who can catch, face and attack in the belly of the zone. Marcus Garrett will need to be razor sharp in Wilson’s stead.
Key Factor(s): EWU’s post-to-post passing, screening and cutting is unlike anything KU has seen this year. Along with Tanner Groves, his baby brother Jacob Groves and bouncy athlete Kim Aiken will get a steady diet of interior touches.
Here’s a vintage example of little Groves finding Aiken on a well timed cut, setting up a foul and trip to the charity stripe.
Final Predictions: If Kansas was fully stocked with all their horses, and had a full week of proper time to prep, I’d bet on a runaway. That prognosis now seems ominous sans Wilson and a standard practice schedule, but the Jayhawks’ defense has been their bedrock all season. EWU will have trouble initiating their action, as they’re accustomed to in the Big Sky, which could throw a wrench in one of the nation’s prettiest offenses.
(7) Oregon vs. (10) VCU
Initial Thoughts: Oregon’s a fascinating riddle heading into the big dance. They adorn the cliche ‘dark horse’ label, a deserving sign of respect for Dana Altman’s sterling March resume. For the record, I’m a devout subscriber to the Altman fan club. His chameleon coaching style works wonders in a tournament setting.
But first, let me throw on the devil’s advocate hat here.
The Ducks rank in the mid 30s in a few notable analytic rankings (Kenpom, Haslametrics), as does VCU, which explains why their model projects this game as a coin flip.
The gap between the public consensus - an opinion shared by the oddsmakers - and the metrics likely stems from Will Richardson’s delayed debut, and, to a lesser extent, Eric Williams’ improving health.
However, it dawned on me that both Richardson and Williams have been fully integrated for over a month now. In theory, that should’ve been enough runway for the Ducks to actualize their fullest potential. On February 6th, Oregon ranked 32nd in KenPom. Today? 36th.
All that is to say, I fear the quack fanatics, including myself, may be caught in a trance.
VCU on Offense: Skepticism aside, there’s no denying the Ducks drew a favorable matchup in Round 1. VCU initiates everything from the perimeter, a steady dose of ball screens and dribble handoffs in the backcourt. Oregon’s interchangeable lineup is geared to defend this action with ease, by simply switching any crossover movements. Additionally, Oregon’s zone(s) will force VCU to completely reshape their core offense.
As long as Oregon has their heads on a swivel in constant search of where Bones Hyland is, they’ll keep VCU in check. Especially in zone, Oregon MUST shade toward Bones at all times. Hyland is a human blow torch from long range, with parking lot range and a lightning quick trigger:
Chris Duarte will likely draw the Hyland assignment. Duarte’s one of the most complete players in this tournament, regarded as a lockdown defender at the point of attack. His 6’6 frame is optimal for guarding Bones, who’s torched smaller defenders this season.
Oregon on Offense: Anyone else catch Oregon’s dumpster fire of a performance against USC? If so, you already know what’s poisonous to the Ducks’ offense: elite size and length. Oregon couldn’t even get a shot off from inside 10-feet against the Brothers Mobley.
VCUs havoc-inducing defense is elite in its own way, as speed takes priority over size. Oregon struggles to shoot over trees but they’re well suited to attack pressure. The Ducks boast multiple ball handlers with serious size, the perfect DNA blent to not just handle the havoc but exploit it.
Eugene Omoruyi looks like a linebacker at first glance, the Ducks’ quasi-5 man. He filled in at point guard early in the year before Richardson healed, a luxury most teams don’t have.
Key Factor(s): The down side of Oregon’s wing-y lineup is that it leaves the heart of their defense soft and unprotected. Opponents shot 52% against Oregon inside the arc this season, the 3rd highest clip in the Pac-12.
The impenetrable Oregon defenses in recent years always had that feared fly swatter roaming around the rim (Kenny Wooten, Jordan Bell, etc.). With that safety net behind them, the guards and wings could fly around and hunt steaks without repercussions.
The small-ball look also leaves the Ducks exposed on the glass, where Oregon State capitalized in the Pac-12 Tournament by flooding the lane on every shot. The Ducks should be able to hold their own on the boards, even devoid of a traditional postman. Just look at Maryland. The Terps’ interchangeable lineup construction bears a striking resemblance to Oregon, but they don’t suffer from the same rebounding woes.
Final Prediction: Minor nitpicks aside, I’m still sticking with the herd and riding with Oregon. Akin to the Loyola / Georgia Tech matchup on the other side of the bracket, I haven’t seen one person emphatically endorse VCU in this spot. All the Rams did this year was continuously silence their doubters - they fondly remember those disrespectful preseason projections. That said, Dana Altman’s track record speaks for itself. Quack. Quack. Quack.
(2) Iowa vs. (15) Grand Canyon
Initial Thoughts: Well whaddya know, the Lopes finally broke through. Year after year, Grand Canyon had the perennial WAC favorite, New Mexico State, in their crosshairs, only to come up short time and time again.
Enter Goliath slayer Bryce Drew. After a mind-boggling firing at Vanderbilt, Drew sought redemption in the desert, where a percolating program was on the rise. Dan Majerle deserves credit for putting GCU on the rail position heading into the 2021 campaign.
Then, in a stoic, John McClane-esque demeanor, Drew simply said, “I’ll take it from here”.
On the other side, yikes, what a miserable draw for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were thrown into the Gonzaga purgatory, along with Kansas and Virginia. At least they avoided any COVID grenades that Kansas and Virginia stepped on right before the tournament.
Iowa on Offense:
*Disclaimer: the following blurb highlights key reasons why GCU is built to slow down Luka Garza. To be clear, no one is stopping Garza. He’s an unstoppable force no matter who checks him. This is all relative.*
A big reason I’m bullish on Grand Canyon in this matchup, from an ATS perspective, is Asbjorn Midtgaard. Bryce Drew took the sparingly used reserve from Wichita and turned him into the ‘Danish Destroyer’. Before his arrival, the Lopes were a trainwreck defensively. They finished in the bottom-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, a function of relying too heavily on Alessandro Lever as the primary rim protector. We’ll get back to Lever in the ‘Grand Canyon on Offense’ section, since that’s where 99.9999% of his value lies - he’s a smooth operating big man with enviable skill and touch but was never an effective defender.
Before Midtgaard, GCU couldn’t stop a nosebleed. Now, the Lopes boast a top-75 overall defense. ‘The Great Dane’ (last feeble nickname attempt, I swear) likely draws the Garza assignment. This will be a bruising heavyweight boxing match on the block. The challenge for Midtgaard will be chasing Garza out on the perimeter, where the big man’s feathery touch has been lethal all year. Midtgaard’s mobile enough to step out and contest Garza with his towering length but Garza is bound to knock down a few - he’s just too good and the release point is impossible to block.
Grand Canyon on Offense: Midtgaard doubles as the Antelopes’ offensive fulcrum. GCU loves to throw it inside to their big fella, evidenced by the 14th highest rate of post up possessions in the nation, per Synergy. Most analytic statheads cringe at a post-up centric offense but it’s paying dividends for Bryce Drew. GCU’s post-up efficiency ranks 4th in the nation, largely the work of Midtgaard.
Garza’s gotten a lot of slack for his defensive liabilities but he’s thick enough to push Midtgaard away from the restricted area. But, is he long enough to contest these vintage baby hooks? (This is Midtgaard scoring over 6’11 Fardaws Aimaq without breaking a sweat).
Alessandro Lever could also pose mismatch problems, the overshadowed second big who took a backseat to Midtgaard in the offensive pecking order this season. I have no idea how Lever guards Joe Wisekamp on the other end of the floor, but Lever could do damage inside against the smaller Wieskamp. That will be a critical part of the chess match between Drew and McCaffery.
As for GCU’s guards, they’re smart and steady. If Iowa opts to double the post, they’ll have to cash in on kick out triples.
Key Factor(s): The only time Iowa’s looked vulnerable this season, other than against Gonzaga, is when CJ Fredrick and Joe Wieskamp were banged up. Both have dealt with lower leg injuries for most of the season and are reportedly still playing through pain. They were pulled in the 2nd half of Saturday’s loss against Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, a concerning sign this close to the NCAA Tournament. All signs point toward Fredrick and Wieskamp playing this weekend, but keep an eye on McCaffery’s minutes management with these two - if the Hawkeyes get up comfortably in the 2nd half, I’d bet Fran parks them both on the pine.
Final Predictions: Watching Grand Canyon go 14 rounds with Colorado convinced me the Lopes can hang with anyone. Iowa is a different beast, though, with an offensive gear only a handful of teams can match. I’m just concerned we won’t see Iowa’s A-game against GCU’s mammoth size and with Wieskamp and Fredrick still potentially gimpy. Iowa advances, Grand Canyon covers.
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