- Ky McKeon
Key Returners: EJ Liddell, Justice Sueing, Kyle Young, Zed Key, Justin Ahrens, Seth Towns, Eugene Brown, Jimmy Sotos
Key Losses: Duane Washington, CJ Walker, Musa Jallow
Key Newcomers: Jamari Wheeler (Penn State), Joey Brunk (Indiana), Cedric Russell (Louisiana), Malaki Branham, Kalen Etzler
Lineup:
Outlook: It was another analytically impressive season for Chris Holtmann in Columbus, as his Buckeyes finished inside the KenPom top 16 for the third time in four years. OSU was expected to be good in 2020-21, but very few expected the Buckeyes to reach as high as 4th in the AP poll and earn a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Injuries plagued OSU all season and were ultimately a factor in its postseason demise, as Kyle Young’s concussion kept him out in a First-Round bout against Tourney darling Oral Roberts. Holtmann has yet to reach the second weekend in March at the helm of OSU, but with a stacked roster returning headlined by potential All-American EJ Liddell, he’ll have another legitimate shot at a Big Ten title and top-3 seed in the Big Dance.
Holtmann’s teams at OSU have usually been defined by their defense, but last season’s squad was quite the opposite. The Buckeyes finished just 82nd in KenPom’s Adj. DE rankings, the first time they’ve ranked outside the top 25 under Holtmann. OSU was good at denying opportunities near the rim and within the belly of the defense – pack line principles will do that – but when opponents were able to get into the paint they scored at a high clip. OSU’s inability to force turnovers and effectively deter 3-point shooters magnified this interior weakness. Frontcourt depth and top-end size proved to be an issue all season.
That should change in 2021-22. Ohio State has one of the deepest frontcourts in the Big Ten featuring four players capable of starting and providing meaningful minutes. EJ Liddell is the big name, a 1st Team All-Big Ten and HM All-American last season. He’ll be on the shortlist for Big Ten POY in 2022 and his return alone is reason to believe in the Buckeyes’ chances of taking home some Big Ten championship hardware. Fellow NBA Draft flirter Duane Washington was important to OSU, but the Buckeyes were nearly the same from an efficiency perspective when he played versus when he sat. That was not the case with Liddell, as OSU was significantly better on both ends of the floor when its star sophomore was in the game.
Per Hoop-Explorer
Liddell may not be the biggest forward in the Big Ten at only 6’7”, but he is extremely difficult to stop on the offensive end. He’s a great finisher, has a silky touch, and possesses an array of post moves to tear apart any defender.
Cooking Cockburn Part I
Liddell even started hitting 3s last season, connecting on 39.2% of his longball tries in league play. He’ll be one of the best players in the country this season and could average close to 20 PPG.
Returning with Liddell up front are two more “undersized” bigs in Kyle Young (6’8”) and Zed Key (6’8”). Young is a hard-nosed bruiser who was clearly more valuable to his team last season than one would expect. OSU was just 1-3 without Young in the lineup, likely due to Young’s unstoppable motor and hustle as well as OSU’s lack of depth with him out of commission. Like Liddell, Young turned into a reliable spot-up outside shooter last season – when the pair shared the floor last year OSU scored a ridiculous 1.314 points per possession on an adjusted basis per Hoop-Explorer.
Key is a major breakout candidate if he can stay out of foul trouble. Though he stands 6’8” he is anything but “little” in the paint, able to push around anyone with his strength and 245-pound frame. Key had bursts where he was unstoppable on the block last season, and he’s one of the most ferocious rebounders in all of college basketball.
Cooking Cockburn Part II
Indiana transfer Joey Brunk’s arrival is what bolsters this unit’s depth and solidifies it as one of the premier frontcourts around. Brunk brings legit size at 6’11” and offers skilled post scoring and rebounding. He’ll compete for starts at the 5 after missing last season entirely due to a shoulder injury. Top 150 prospect Kalen Etzler, a long stretch forward, likely spends most of his freshman season on the bench behind the crowded frontcourt.
Offense will go through Liddell nearly every possession, as OSU’s backcourt took a major scoring hit when Washington opted to stay in the Draft. The Buckeyes ranked 4th last season nationally in KenPom’s Adj. OE rankings, their best performance in program history since 2011. Holtmann has plenty of complementary pieces to play around Liddell, and his gravity should lead to numerous open shots on the perimeter and opportunities for his wings and guards to put points on the board.
Justice Sueing is the prime candidate to take on a larger scoring role this season. He impressed last year after transferring from Cal, proving to be a capable shooter and versatile scorer. He offers size on the wing at 6’7” but will need to improve defensively. Fellow perimeter returner Justin Ahrens, aka Mr. Efficiency, will repeat his role as spot-up shooter. Ahrens shot 42.5% from deep last season and took 127 3s versus just seven 2s. He’ll be in the mix for Washington’s vacant starting spot.
Former Harvard transfer Seth Towns offers a similar skillset as Sueing, but he was considerably limited last year still recovering from multiple knee injuries. Towns was the Ivy League POY in 2018 and an HM All-American but then missed two consecutive seasons due to injury. He never looked fully comfortable or mobile on his knee last season, but word is he’s progressing nicely this offseason and is poised to have a major role in 2021-22. Sophomore wing Eugene Brown, a former 3-star recruit, could see his minutes increase this season with his ability to defend and knock down the 3.
Freshman Malaki Branham is the favorite to occupy Washington’s former starting spot. He’s a top 35 prospect from LeBron’s high school, an athletic and strong guard physically ready for college ball. While we shouldn’t expect Branham to have near the scoring impact as Washington in year one, he should be a plus defender and be a penetration / spot-up threat on offense. Louisiana transfer Cedric Russell, a 1st Team All-Sun Belt selection last season, is a major arrival for an Ohio State backcourt lacking scoring and shooting. Russell shot over 40% from deep last year and ranked 3rd in the Sun Belt in scoring. He’ll compete with Branham for starts and handle the ball in a pinch.
Holtmann has a few options with which to replace point guard CJ Walker. Chief among them is Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler, a Big Ten All-Defensive Team honoree in 2021. Wheeler has struggled with turnovers during his career, but he did improve last season and now enters his 5th year in college. From a defensive standpoint he’s a massive upgrade over Walker, and I’ll go as far to say he’s at least a wash offensively.
Jimmy Sotos is back as well after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last year. He can shoot the cover off the ball and play PG when needed. Former 4-star recruit Meechie Johnson is an intriguing prospect with gobs of potential. He saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he frankly just needs reps after missing his entire HS junior season due to injury and reclassing to OSU mid-way through last year. Johnson should be a key contributor down the road.
Bottom Line: I’m a believer in the Buckeyes this season. Holtmann is an excellent coach who has won 20+ games eight straight seasons dating back to his Gardner-Webb days, and he has a veteran roster at his disposal led by one of the best players in the country. Washington’s departure hurts, but not as much many might think. While the Buckeyes won’t be the nation’s 4th best offensive team this season, they should be a top 20 offensive squad and be vastly improved on the defensive end.