-Jim Root
Key Returners: John Fulkerson, Santiago Vescovi, Victor Bailey, Josiah-Jordan James
Key Losses: Yves Pons, Jaden Springer (pro), Keon Johnson (pro)
Key Newcomers: Kennedy Chandler, Justin Powell (Auburn), Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Jonas Aidoo, Jahmai Mashack, Quentin Diboundje
Lineup:
Outlook: When the calendar flipped to 2021, Tennessee looked like a favorite to make the Final Four. Yes, the Vols had a choppy offensive start after a COVID pause delayed their debut, but they ripped off seven straight wins while their wrecking ball of a defense allowed 0.85 points per possession or less in six of those victories. We, like many others, anointed them a top five team and the clear SEC favorite as Kentucky struggled – all of which seemed defensible given the blend of continuity and incoming talent.
But on January 2nd, Alabama came into Knoxville and stunned the college hoops world, and Tennessee went just 11-9 after the calendar flipped. Even as the defense continued to dominate, particularly in the paint, the offense evolved into a fatal flaw, undermining any chance to win a conference title or make a run in March. Look at this paltry production in the Vols’ losses:
Fortunately, there’s some real hope that the offense makes significant progress this year. Five-star point guard recruit Kennedy Chandler will be the most dynamic on-ball presence Rick Barnes has had since at least Jordan Bone – and maybe even since DJ Augustin, when Texas made the Elite Eight in 2008. The 6’0 dynamo is fast, explosive, and hyper-competitive, and he should take the rock from Day One:
That finally moves Santiago Vescovi off the ball, a place where the long-range sniper should be far more comfortable. He got to be a spot up threat in brief spells last year, but he – and really, the rest of this roster – has yet to play with a pure creator like Chandler who is wired to make his teammates better.
That should have a trickle-down effect to the rest of the team’s scoring options, as well. Victor Bailey and Josiah-Jordan James are skilled lefties with length; both players should benefit from more open shots from the perimeter. Bailey is especially streaky: in the final four games of the year, he went just 4-for-24 from deep, immediately following a four-game stretch where he had gone 19-for-34. James, meanwhile, dealt with a wrist injury, ultimately having surgery after the season, and finally having a healthy campaign (he had hamstring issues as a freshman) would be a major boost for the Vols. Auburn transfer Justin Powell adds yet another skilled shooter with size, and Powell has excellent secondary creation abilities after being forced into point guard duties under Bruce Pearl last year.
In general, though, Barnes faces a pressing stylistic question. Since arriving at Tennessee, his offenses have been heavily reliant on off-ball motion – a ton of flex action, some mover/blocker, very little pick-and-roll (click this link for an outstanding eight-minute YouTube breakdown of the 2018-19 version via Adam Spinella). That has not always been the case, though. Back in 2007-08, Barnes gave Augustin full control to run the team, and Texas ranked 13th in the entire country in percentage of possessions that included a pick-and-roll, compared to Tennessee’s 336th ranking last year. Now that he finally has another true maestro of Augustin’s caliber, will he re-calibrate the offense to Chandler’s skillset?
If he does, the big men will have to adapt, but the personnel look promising for such a change. John Fulkerson is the veteran presence, a skilled and bouncy lefty who was the Vols’ only true post threat (and post defender). He opted to use his COVID year after missing the NCAA Tournament with a concussion and facial fractures suffered via an incredibly dirty elbow from Florida’s Omar Payne, and he provides a terrific foundation inside. True freshmen Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Jonas Aidoo add athletic size that Tennessee simply did not have beyond Fulkerson, and all three could be potent PnR partners with Chandler.
Huntley-Hatfield also provides a pick-and-pop threat; the reclassified recruit is tremendously skilled for a man of his size (listed at 6’10, 235 pounds), and he can attack off the bounce if slower bigs scramble at him out of control. Reclass prospects often have a learning curve, though, so BHH may not be the immediate star that his pedigree suggests.
If Barnes does maintain the same kind of motion, that will benefit Vescovi, Bailey, James, and Powell, all of whom will play the “mover” roles, winding their defenders around an array of screens. The offense gives them the option to curl all the way to the basket (Admiral Schofield dominated this way) or catch-and-shoot around the screen, an area where Powell could flourish.
A final important note on the offense: Tennessee was horrid against zones last year, scoring in the 33rd percentile, per Synergy. Oregon State and Mississippi especially frustrated the Vols with different looks, and Tennessee’s inability to get productive free throw line touches often short-circuited the attack. A healthier James (seemingly the perfect free throw line piece) and the addition of a sniper like Powell should help alleviate these concerns, but Barnes will need to prove he can gameplan against changing defenses after a rough 2020-21.
If the addition of Chandler is a near-certainty to improve the offense, then the subtraction of Yves Pons will inevitably have the reverse effect on the defense. The physically-freakish Frenchman won SEC Defensive Player of the Year in 2019-20 and earned a spot on the All-Defensive Team last year; he could guard all five positions while also protecting the rim. Without Pons (and one-and-done perimeter players Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson), the Vols take a hit in terms of individual versatility, but this roster is still plenty capable of being a top 20 unit on that end.
James is Pons Lite, a disruptive force with the size (6’6, 207 pounds) and athleticism to guard at least four positions. This is just outrageous multiple efforts from “The Yoga Master” while blanketing Oregon State’s Warith Alatishe:
He may not be Pons, but he gives the Vols another viable All-Defense candidate. Powell (6’6) and Bailey (6’4) have length, as well, and 4-star freshman Jahmai Mashack is hailed as one of the best defenders in the entire class (though raw offensively). Vescovi and Chandler don’t offer the same physical toolboxes as the rest of the roster, but Vescovi has experience on his side, and Chandler’s quickness can add an element of on-ball pressure.
Plus, with the additions of Huntley-Hatfield and Aidoo, Tennessee now has real depth in the paint. Aidoo has a massive ceiling as a shot-blocker thanks to his length, timing, and bounce, and those two should help the Vols maintain their elite rim defense. According to Hoop-Math, Tennessee opponents shot just 52.0% at the rim last year, the 14th-best mark in the country, and that could get even worse (better?) this year. The added size should also help continue to stabilize the defensive rebounding, an area that has long plagued Barnes’ teams. If the freshmen deliver, that will shift Olivier Nkamhoua and Uros Plavsic into depth roles, which is fitting for a potential Final Four contender.
Bottom Line: Like last year, the ceiling for the Vols is quite high considering the production and experience of the returning pieces combined with the talent of the newcomers. It remains to be seen if the pieces fit together better offensively, though, particularly based on the system Barnes opts to employ. The scheme decisions could also be affected by Barnes losing two of his assistants: Kim English (George Mason) and Desmond Oliver (East Tennessee St.) both landed head coaching gigs. Losing assistants is not a challenge unique to Tennessee, but it does add to the question marks after a year of underachievement. Will more shooting, added frontcourt depth, and (hopefully) better health lead to the March run that Rocky Top nation dreams of? We shall see.