-Jim Root
Welcome to the sixth edition of my annual “Quick Peek at Futures,” presented to you by Miller High Life: The Champagne of Beers (god, I wish). In this space, I try to pick out the low-hanging fruit offered by sportsbooks on college hoop futures, and fortunately, it’s been a profitable endeavor (more on that below). The ones that jump out at me typically fall into one of three categories:
National title favorite priced as a Sweet 16 team
Top 10-15 team priced as a top 30-40 team
Some fun dart throws (this tier is threatening to be renamed the Nate Oats Corner)
The distribution among each group certainly varies from year-to-year, but thanks to a tumultuous offseason, I’ve cobbled together a relatively hefty set of wagers. It pains me that Westgate is not publishing odds to make the Final Four (yet?), as I have thoroughly enjoyed that offering the past two years. Plus, it makes it possible to win more than one bet without hedging, which is fun (see 2019 results).
As a résumé of sorts, here are the past editions of this column, including highlights from each year:
2019-20 – no results, obviously – but I did have Gonzaga (KenPom #2) at 25/1, Ohio State (Pom #8) at 12/1 to make the Final Four, Florida St. (Pom #15) at 20/1 to make the Final Four, West Virginia (Pom #10) at 125/1 overall, and Houston (Pom #14) at 25/1 to make the Final Four. That’s a pretty strong collection of value, depending on how the bracket ultimately sorted itself out. We don’t talk about Florida, though.
2018-19 – nailed UVA 20/1, also hit Texas Tech to the Final Four 15/1
2017-18 – nailed Nova 20/1
2016-17 – got Gonzaga (50/1) to the title game
2015-16 – let’s pretend this one never happened, ok
Now let’s get to the good part!
Note: I’ve included odds from Westgate and William Hill off the apps and from DraftKings here – I don’t see anything from Circa or MGM at this point, unfortunately.
Tier I. The Real Contenders
Gonzaga 12/1 (Now: 10/1 at Westgate, 10/1 at William Hill, 9/1 at DraftKings)
Villanova 20/1 (Now: 14/1 at Westgate, 10/1 at William Hill, 8/1 at DraftKings)
For my money (quite literally), these are the two best teams in the country, with the Zags being the same kind of “notch above” that Michigan State was perceived as last preseason. At that point, the Spartans were going off between 5/1 and 8/1, so scooping up the Zags at 12/1 feels like a win, even though I traditionally shy away from the teams priced in this region (I don’t hate 10/1 either). It’s entirely possible this is Mark Few’s most talented team in Spokane, and he’s going to win one eventually – look if, even the snakebitten LA Lakers and LeBron James can find a way to finally capture a title, why can’t Gonzaga??
I couldn’t resist an incredibly talented Nova team at 20/1 either, considering the nostalgia it brings me for my 2018 winner at the same odds. The Wildcats’ on/off numbers last year with Saddiq Bey were mildly concerning, but I trust Jay Wright to blend a few new pieces into that glaring void in the rotation. Bryan Antoine, I believe in you!
Houston 50/1 (Now: 80/1 at Westgate, 50/1 at William Hill, 40/1 at DraftKings)
Texas Tech 50/1 (Now: 20/1 at Westgate, 30/1 at William Hill, 35/1 at DraftKings)
Tennessee 50/1 (Now: 25/1 at Westgate, 35/1 at William Hill, 35/1 at DraftKings)
Similar to the thought process above, I view all three of these squads as top 15 teams (Texas Tech and Tennessee as top 10), so 50/1 is far too generous for me to ignore. I initially took Houston before Fabian White sadly tore his ACL, so the Cougars are actually available at 80/1 now, likely prompting me to add a little extra sprinkle. These would have been prime “Bet to make the Final Four” squads at 12/1 or 15/1, so I’ll pour out some High Life for that wager.
All three teams have similar ingredients: a physical, defensive identity on which to hang their hats (particularly Houston and Texas Tech, while Tennessee returns the SEC Defensive Player of the Year), and the rosters blend high-ceiling youngsters and trustworthy veterans. Rick Barnes is perhaps a notch below Kelvin Sampson and Chris Beard in my accounting of coaches, but what he’s done in Knoxville is impossible to ignore, and that Vols team is absolutely loaded with talent (I spy at least four future NBA players).
Tier II. The Fringe Boys (Up to 150:1)
Alabama 100/1 (Now: 60/1 at Westgate, 75/1 at William Hill, 80/1 at DraftKings)
Rutgers 150/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate, 100/1 at William Hill, not listed at DraftKings)
Memphis 100/1 (Now: 40/1 at Westgate, 100/1 at William Hill, 100/1 at DraftKings)
Oklahoma St. 150/1 (lol)
I’d rather bet this entire group to make the Final Four, not win the whole thing, so heed that disclaimer if your bookie of choice offers that.
I may just auto-bet Alabama futures for as long as my best friend Nate Oats is there, because his analytically sound style of play and ever-blossoming ability to reel in elite talent is tough for books to keep up with at a school most known for mashing football opponents to a pulp. In just two offseasons, Oats has assembled a team that fits his scheme like a glove, with speed, shooting, and mobility all over the court. Roll, Tide, indeed.
Rutgers’ style may be the antithesis of Alabama’s, but the coach (Steve Pikiell) is equally as brilliant, and he has his best team since arriving in Piscataway in 2016. Oh, and that idea - that winning big is entirely possible, despite a starkly contrasting modus operandi - is the essence of why I love college hoops. Rutgers is absolutely a team I would have preferred to take at 35/1 to make the Final Four instead, but alas.
I have yet to make my Memphis wager, but I plan on doing so Friday evening when I cross back into Nevada airspace. There’s simply too much young talent and tantalizing potential for me to ignore if I can snipe the Tigers at 100/1, regardless of any lingering Penny Hardaway questions I may or may not have (I don’t recommend the 40/1).
As for Oklahoma State…well, in case you haven’t been paying attention, the NCAA has shoved its boot all the way up the Cowboys’ hind parts, banning them from 2021 postseason play thanks to the actions of a coach who was fired in 2017 and sentenced to three months in prison in June 2019. That makes sense!!! There’s still some hope on appeal, and it’s hard to dislike having a transformative, generational talent like Cade Cunningham at 150/1 . FREE CADE!!!
Tier III. Do Something Smarter With Your Money (the rest)
Wichita St. 250/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate, 250/1 at William Hill, 100/1 at DraftKings)
SMU 300/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate, 300/1 at William Hill, not listed at DraftKings)
Miami (FL) 300/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate, 200/1 at William Hill, 100/1 at DraftKings)
Like the above, Final Four wagers have a better shot at being useful in the long run with this group.
With Gregg Marshall currently embroiled in major controversy, the Wichita State value is a little tougher to recommend. However, if he does somehow survive the school investigation into pegging players with basketballs and paying his wife a per-ref-insult allowance*, then I do think the Shockers will way outperform the general preseason consensus on them. They have some “we’re all in this bunker together” potential as a rallying cry, and there’s plenty of talent on the roster despite the mass of transfers that left the program this offseason.
* - not actual accusations
SMU has long been a darling of mine, something of a “sub-Alabama” level of crush, and the Ponies’ prolific offense packs a punch. They may never defend well enough to warrant my love for them, though. Miami is a team that’s sneakily stacked with talent but has been gutted by injuries the past two years. Jim Larranaga has obviously won big before, and I think the Hurricanes are a top 40 team this year with upside for more.
Loyola Chi 1500/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate, 1000/1 at William Hill, 300/1 at DraftKings)
It’s wild to see such a Grand Canyon-sized gap between the odds for one school among two different books; in my opinion, WH is asleep at the wheel here. The Ramblers return everybody from a 20-win team that finished second in the MVC, and in case you missed it, Porter Moser has made a Final Four at Loyola before. It’s quite a long shot, of course, but it’s one worth taking on a loaded team with a strong track record and an excellent coach.
Tier IV. The Stay Aways
I forgot to mention this last tier in the intro - each year, I advise against betting on three squads whose odds strike me as too short based on my own perceptions. Memphis was the standout from last year, and I’m in on them this season, so you know that there’s no bias involved here!
Iowa (25/1 at Westgate, 18/1 at William Hill, 9/1 at DraftKings)
The Weave is all on record as being lower on this Iowa team than the market, and that’s primarily due to its defensive shortcomings. At better odds (50/1?), I might find some intrigue here considering the possibility the offense goes superNova in March (think 2016 or 2018 Wildcats), but I can’t abide by the Hawkeyes being priced like a top 8-10 squad.
Michigan State (18/1 at Westgate, 18/1 at William Hill, 15/1 at DraftKings)
Losing Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman is going to hurt badly, yet the Spartans are still priced as a top 8ish team (T-5th at Westgate, actually). That’s the first problem. Second, if you are high on this team as a title contender, even you probably realize Tom Izzo always goes with a “trial-and-error” approach to ironing out his rotation, often leading to early losses, and that seems especially true with a new team in search of its identity. As a result, there’s a solid chance the Spartans are priced better than this at some point in the year - be patient and seize upon that, if you must.
Florida State (40/1 at Westgate, 25/1 at William Hill, 15/1 at DraftKings)
A darling of mine in the past (see: last year’s column), the growing hype around Leonard Hamilton and his annual reload of athletes has the Seminoles overpriced this time around. The “Scottie Barnes at point guard” rumors are intriguing from an NBA Draft perspective, but I don’t think the best version of this FSU team involves him consistently handling the ball - the ‘Noles need more shot creators to emerge. The Westgate price is acceptable, I suppose, but I can’t recommend anything shorter than that.