-Jim Root
That’s right, folks! The seventh annual edition of my look at the college hoops futures market has arrived. And none too soon — good lord, are we really a week away from games already?
I did not have a Baylor preseason ticket last year, unfortunately. I did manage to get Gonzaga 12/1 and Houston 50/1 to the Final Four, allowing me to make some money with a Bears hedge. Pesky UCLA nearly thwarted the entire operation…thank you, Jalen Suggs.
One big note: I have a few extra bets this year, compared to a normal season’s quantity. I made some speculative wagers at the start of the offseason thanks to the new transfer rule, hoping to snipe value early in the process. In some cases (Texas!) that worked wonderfully; in others (the state of Virginia), not so much. Hence the addition of a new section: The Bad Batch (Tier IV).
In paranthesis, I included the best currently available odds among nine sportsbooks: Westgate, William Hill, MGM, Circa, South Point, DraftKings, Barstool, WynnBET, and FanDuel. Don’t hold your breath waiting to see Barstool: it has the best price on legitimately ZERO teams. I’m not entirely sure how that’s possible. Fortunately, their regular season conference winner odds were friendly (but that’s a whole other article).
Tier I. The Real Contenders
Gonzaga 10/1 and 9/1 (Now: 8/1 at WynnBET, 7/1 at William Hill)
Kansas 18/1 (Now: 18/1 at DraftKings, 16/1 at WH and MGM)
Villanova 25/1 (Now: 16/1 at Westgate, Circa, DK)
If (and when) Gonzaga wins a title, I will profit from it — mark my words! In my eyes, the Zags are the top team in the nation, so I quickly scooped up two bets on them back in April.
Kansas was a recent addition. I have the Jayhawks as my #2 squad, so getting them at 18/1 (priced like a standard top 10 team) was too good to pass up. Last year’s roster was crying out for some on-ball creation; hello Remy Martin and Joe Yesufu.
Price was the motivating factor for Villanova, as well. Questions about the Wildcats’ ceiling are fair, but when Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels returned to school, I had to take a bite of 25/1 before it vanished.
Purdue 40/1 (Now: 25/1 at Westgate, 21/1 at Circa)
Illinois 40/1 (Now: 40/1 at Westgate, South Point, WynnBET)
Texas 50/1 (Now: 20/1 at WynnBET, 18/1 at WH and DK)
Oregon 50/1 (Now: 55/1 at Circa, 50/1 at WH)
The timing could not be more opposite for the two 40/1 Big Ten teams. I took Purdue the day after the national championship game, while I just added Illinois recently. The Boilermakers wager is self-explanatory — awesome coach, everyone back, huge frosh-to-soph upside internally. Meanwhile, if I squint hard enough, I can see the Fighting Illini nabbing a top 1 or 2 seed again, so long as Andre Curbelo develops the way we hope and the wing options emerge.
The Longhorns were a steal. Back in April, MGM had a rogue 50/1 out there, and I could not resist Chris Beard at that price. Under his purview, Texas will likely never be in the 50/1 range ever again, especially after the way he weaponized the transfer portal this offseason.
One could argue Oregon belongs in The Bad Batch below, since technically better odds than my wager are available. But I buy Dana Altman and this three-headed backcourt of lefty creators (Will Richardson, De’Vion Harmon, Jacob Young), and there are enough intriguing pieces around them to tease the upside. The Ducks are always a pain to play in March because of Altman’s schemes, but the defense needs to improve.
Tier II. The Fringe Boys (Up to 150:1)
Memphis 80/1 (Now: 25/1 at Westgate, 24/1 at Circa)
Auburn 125/1 (Now: 70/1 at DK, 65/1 at Circa)
Indiana 200/1 and 150/1 (Now: 100/1 at Westgate and South Point)
I got lucky on Memphis — Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates were not on my radar, but I’m not complaining. Ball control questions still abound, but there’s no denying the talent and terrifying defensive potential.
After landing a commitment from Walker Kessler, Auburn at this number was too appealing. Kessler and Jabari Smith could form a devastating one-two punch up front, and I like the guard pickups of Wendell Green and KD Johnson more than most. As long as Allen Flanigan can get healthy, Bruce Pearl will have a contender on his hands.
I often found myself low on Indiana under Archie Miller, but with Trayce Jackson-Davis back and Mike Woodson taking over, it’s a new day. Sure, we have no idea if Woodson and the Hoosiers will actually be a cohesive fit, but his staff is terrific and the newcomers have upside. Come on, IU — make the Final Four and I’ll buy some candy stripe pants! (Or maybe just a boat load of Homefield gear)
Tier III. Do Something Smarter With Your Money (the rest)
St. Bonaventure 300/1 (Now: 200/1 at Westgate and South Point)
Seton Hall 300/1 (Now: 300/1 at Westgate and South Point)
St. Bonaventure should win the Atlantic 10, and if they are able to go on a productive run against a formidable non-conference schedule, the seed ceiling is actually fairly high. With such a veteran starting lineup back plus a revamped bench, why not?
A pet team of mine all offseason, I had to put my money where my mouth is with Seton Hall. The defense could be smothering, and if Kadary Richmond sparks the offense with his penetration, the Pirates could blossom into the Big East’s second-best team.
Betting these two to make the Final Four is significantly more appealing. If I had any patience about me, I would have waited and done that. I may take that strategy with BYU (50/1 to get to New Orleans).
Miami (FL) 500/1 (Now: 500/1 at WynnBET)
Colorado St. 500/1 (Now: 500/1 at Circa and WynnBET)
Drake 500/1 (Now: 1000/1 at Circa)
I don’t want to talk about Miami (FL). I have an addiction, it’s a problem, whatever. Save it for the intervention.
Both Colorado State and Drake could become top 30ish teams, so a little gamble on mid-major greatness was in order.
I also have between $5 and $10 on the following: UNLV, Wazzu, Richmond (all 1000/1); Belmont, Iona, Nevada (all 2000/1). As always, I would vastly prefer having those as “to make the Final Four” tickets. I know I essentially burned that money, but oh well! The Loyola 1500/1 ticket was a hell of a ride last season.
Tier IV. The Bad Batch
When you gamble, sometimes you lose. As noted above, many of my futures bets were speculative and came early in the offseason. For a few, personnel decisions went against me. That created a graveyard of poor value on the wagers below, all of which can be had at better numbers today.
Of course, if any of these teams make a run, I will celebrate these tickets the same I would any other…
Alabama 25/1 (Now: 33/1 at Circa, 30/1 at Westgate and South Point)
Arkansas 30/1 (Now: 40/1 at Circa and South Point)
Virginia 40/1 (Now: 60/1 at Circa, 50/1 at many places)
Virginia Tech 75/1 (Now: 110/1 at Circa, 100/1 at Westgate and South Point)
VCU 300/1 (Now: 1000/1 at Circa)
The SEC and the state of Virginia did me no favors this offseason.
Alabama lost Josh Primo to the NBA plus Nimari Burnett and James Rojas to torn ACLs (though Rojas may return this season).
Arkansas didn’t quite pull in the transfer haul I was hoping for.
Virginia lost Trey Murphy to the NBA Draft.
Virginia Tech lost Tyrese Radford to the portal and was not active in acquiring pieces.
The injury monster swallowed VCU whole.
Sigh. Whatever, I still get cheer for Nate Oats, Tony Bennett, and Mike Young, so it’s fine. Oh, and Arkansas fans that hate us — you can succeeed too, I will allow it.
For whatever it’s worth, based on size of wagers, my most profitable outcomes are, in order: Indiana, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Texas.
Tier V. The Stay Aways
UCLA 15/1 at Circa and FanDuel
UCLA is being priced like a top three team, and quite simply, I do not see them as such. The Bruins get Villanova at home and Gonzaga in Las Vegas before Thanksgiving, so we will quickly find out if they have maintained the momentum from last postseason. The price likely will not get much worse than this, so “wait and see” works.
Michigan St. 40/1 at Circa and DK
I don’t hate the Spartans, I swear! This one is about timing. Tom Izzo is still ironing out his rotation, and his Spartan teams never play their best in November. If you want to back Michigan State this year, be patient and pounce if/when some early season struggles occur.
West Virginia 60/1 at Circa and South Point
My colleague Matthew will probably take umbridge with this label of West Virginia. But without Deuce McBride, I just do not think the Mountaineers have the same ceiling as in years past. WVU is still likely a tournamen team, but not one that I envision as making a deep run.