-Jim Root
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(8) Loyola Chicago vs. (12) Oregon St.
Initial Thoughts: Loyola seemed like one of the most under-seeded teams in the NCAA field on Selection Sunday, and Georgia Tech and Illinois felt the brunt of that mistake last weekend, both falling to the Ramblers by double-digits as Porter Moser’s methodical 8-seed controlled both games from start to finish.
Speaking of controlling games, Oregon State has shockingly carried over its torrid play from the Pac-12 Tournament, sending home two incredibly talented squads in Tennessee and Oklahoma State without facing a single second half deficit. The Beavers won each game in a different way, getting hot from downtown against the Vols and living at the free throw line against the Cowboys.
Loyola-Chicago on Offense: The Ramblers were ruthlessly efficient on offense in the tournament’s first two games, tallying 1.20 PPP against Georgia Tech and 1.08 PPP against Illinois’ 6th-ranked defense. Krutwig was typically brilliant in the second game, racking up 19 points and five assists as the Ramblers ran cuts and handoff sets through him at the high post over and over:
Surprisingly, though, he was very quiet against the Yellow Jackets, tallying just 10 points and failing to record an assist for the first time since Jan. 10. That might make the Ramblers even scarier, though, because it tells you that Lucas Williamson, Braden Norris, and Keith Clemons are capable of making huge plays against the highest level of competition.
The question for Oregon State, then, is what defense does Wayne Tinkle throw at the Ramblers? He’s mixed defenses throughout the Beavers’ wild five-game tear, zoning when the opponent cannot score against it:
The Ramblers had not seen much zone until the Round of 64 game (just 64 possessions all season), and even after Georgia Tech threw it at them for over half the game, they’re still 301st in the country in percentage of zone defenses faced. Krutwig makes zoning Loyola nearly impossible: he can score from the free throw line with a little floater, and his absurd passing skill will find any open cutter or shooter.
That puts the Beaver defense between a rock and a hard place. Expect Tinkle to mix it up often, hoping to keep the mega-disciplined Loyola attack as off balance as possible.
Oregon St. on Offense: Oregon State has evolved into a multi-dimensional offense that can beat teams in a variety of ways, whether that be through Roman Silva in the post or via Ethan Thompson orchestrating a potent perimeter assault.
Goodness, what did I just type?
As crazy as it sounds, it’s true. Silva (and Warith Alatishe and Rodrigue Andela) are deadly on the block, and the Beavers’ shooters are playing with confidence oozing out of their ears. They’ll be tested against the Ramblers, though, who have established a firm grip on the top spot in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
The best way to hurt Loyola is in the pick-and-roll, where getting Krutwig defending in space can create openings (the Ramblers rank in the 34th percentile nationally against PnR ball-handlers). Moser runs almost all drop coverage with Krutwig, letting him sit back in the paint, which opens up pull-up jumpers:
Unfortunately, that’s not a staple of the Beaver offense, which instead wants to use Thompson’s ability to attack off the bounce or use off-ball screens for Jarod Lucas and Zach Reichle to open up the defense. Thompson is a capable creator in the PnR when used, and Maurice Calloo profiles as the perfect pick-and-pop big man to punish that drop coverage, but unless Tinkle opts to make sweeping adjustments to OSU’s style, that will not be utilized heavily.
Key Factor(s): Can the Beavers rediscover their hot shooting from the previous four games? They did not hit outside shots at the same kind of volume against Oklahoma State’s zone looks, but they’ll need to against Loyola’s compact, hyper-coordinated defense. Getting into dribble-drive gaps is almost impossible against them, and Lucas Williamson and Marquise Kennedy give Moser two bulldogs to rotate on Thompson. If Lucas, Reichle, and Calloo cannot open up the floor enough, the Ramblers can suffocate Oregon State the same way they did to Illinois (and basically everyone else this year).
Final Prediction: If I had to give a bet on this game, it would be the under – I think Oregon State will struggle mightily to score, but I’m not sure Loyola scores enough to cover -6.5 (or even -7 in some places) considering the likely tempo we see here. Of course, they did prove the ability to do so twice already, so perhaps the Ramblers are just a machine and will continue to be so, but with Wayne Tinkle having a week to prepare, I’ll stay away.
(11) Syracuse vs. (2) Houston
Initial Thoughts: I sniffed out West Virginia as a vulnerable 3-seed, but unfortunately, I ignored the Jimmy B juju as a “how did they even get in the tournament?” at-large squad. It was Syracuse, not San Diego State, that toppled the Mountaineers, and the Orange have looked terrific through two games thus far.
Houston, on the other hand, barely survived a scare against Rutgers in Round Two, clawing back from a nine-point deficit with five minutes to play in a physical battle with the Scarlet Knights. The Cougars will need to be better in this one to escape to the Elite Eight.
Syracuse on Offense: The Orange offense isn’t much of a secret at this point – that’s what happens when you pour in 29 triples through two tournament games. Buddy Boeheim has 13 of those by himself, and the threat of his lethal shooting does so much to open up the rest of the court for his teammates. It also helped to get hot Joe Girard, who cashed in seven treys of his own. This is just pure shot-making:
Shot-making will be pivotal against this Houston defense, which swarms penetration and post touches, relying on the length and activity of its closeouts to bother perimeter jumpers. That length and effort has Houston ranked 12th nationally in 3P% defense, and while we’d often attribute that mostly to luck and expect regression, the Cougars have been consistently elite in that category under Sampson (ranks the prior five years: 8th, 1st, 31st, 70th, 9th).
Of course, Houston is not exactly beatable inside, either, ranking 5th nationally in 2P% defense and 8th in block rate. The only true weakness of the Cougar defense is its propensity to play over-aggressive and commit fouls. Syracuse will take advantage when it actually gets to the line (16th nationally in FT%), but the offense is not attack-oriented whatsoever.
The Orange’s three highest-usage players – Boeheim, Girard, and fellow shooter Alan Griffin – all have a free throw rate below 20%, which is incredibly low and indicative of how reliant on jump shots they all are. Versatile forwards Quincy Guerrier and Marek Dolezaj are another story, but neither gets many touches. More minutes for slashing creator Kadary Richmond could help in multiple facets, both in terms of putting the Houston defense in more positions to foul and in getting the Orange shooters more opportunities.
Houston on Offense: Every Syracuse game comes down to how you attack and execute against the Orange 2-3 zone, which has really become something of a 4-1 in the way it extends out beyond the perimeter:
That accentuates the need to play inside-out, because if you simply pass around the perimeter, Syracuse will force you into taking 25-footers all night, and the difference between those and toe-the-line jumpers is enormous.
Fortunately, Houston has seen a ton of zone already this season in the American, where teams like Tulane and Tulsa play it constantly, and three other squads rank in the country’s top 100 in zone usage. The Cougars fared well against those looks, ranking in the 70th percentile nationally (compared to 81st against man-to-man).
Not all zones are created equal, though, and this Orange 2-3 has really come into its own lately, especially with Richmond evolving into a terror on that end and Robert Braswell earning more and more minutes (21+ for four straight games). The Cougars need Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser, and Tramon Mark to hit shots (any other jumpers from the rest of the roster would just be gravy).
If Houston scores efficiently and wins, it will likely be directly due to complete domination of the glass. The Cougars rank 2nd nationally in offensive rebound rate per KenPom, while the Orange zone is a dismal 340th in defensive rebound rate. For comparison, UNC (which is 1st in offensive rebound rate) grabbed 53.3% and 56.5% of its misses in two games against Syracuse. It’s hard to find a bigger single mismatch in this entire round.
Key Factor(s): Syracuse will get threes off, but the question is: what kind of quality will they be? Houston is one of the few teams in the country that annually holds foes to an awful 3P% despite a middling defensive 3PA rate, mostly due to the intense ball pressure and copious perimeter length. Boeheim and Griffin will get shots up, but if they’re repeatedly challenged, they may not be able to hit enough to keep up here.
Additionally, Jarreau’s health is critical. He’s a major leader for this Houston squad, and his length and defensive instincts on the perimeter can wreak havoc against the Orange shooters. Though he’s not a shooter, his passing can really help cut up the 2-3 if he’s available. He gutted out 32 minutes against Rutgers and has reportedly returned to practice as of Thursday, so I’d expect him to be out there.
Final Prediction: I’m hesitant to swim against the Syracuse current right now, especially considering the way the Orange are absolutely raining down triples. But I do think the Cougars can bother them defensively with their length and athleticism, and the edge on the Houston offensive glass is as glaring as “matchup advantages” get. Plus, Kevin Sampson and the Houston backcourt will have five days to prepare for this zone, a major relative edge when compared to the West Virginia squad that had just one day. I don’t feel great about it, but I lean towards Houston here.