-Matt Cox
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(1) Michigan vs. (4) Florida State
Initial Thoughts: A true heavyweight bout indeed.
It’s hard to say who was more impressive in the Round of 32 between the Wolverines and Seminoles. Michigan withstood multiple scoring avalanches from an NBA-infused LSU roster but eventually carved Will Wade’s defense into a million pieces. Eli Brooks played a perfect basketball game and Chaundree Brown hushed the “Isaiah Livers will be the death of Michigan’s march to the final 4” crowd.
Meanwhile, Florida State eviscerated Colorado, one of the many Pac-12 torchbearers in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The bloated Buffs were feeling high and mighty off their pop-a-shot efficiency against Georgetown and the ‘Noles promptly put them in their place. The speed. The length. The versatility. It was all too overwhelming for CU to handle, a timely reminder that the timeless Leonard Hamilton should be feared.
Michigan on Offense: The size discrepancy between Michigan’s guards and Florida State’s “guards” – if you can even call them that – is alarming. At 6’5, MJ Walker is a shrimp relative to Scottie Barnes (6’9), RaiQuan Gray (6’8) and Anthony Polite (6’6). Mike Smith and Eli Brooks are stoic, unfazed floor generals but neither has seen a perimeter with this much length. Trying to feed the post around the maze of limbs will be a chore in and of itself, never mind shooting over those trees.
Despite those concerns, Michigan’s ping-pong ball movement and unrivaled unselfishness could be the ultimate neutralizer to FSU’s daunting length and athleticism. Florida State’s alien-level athletes enables them to continuously switch positions 1-4 on the perimeter but Michigan is savvy enough to find a few cracks.
If I were advising Juwan Howard, the guy, and Phil Martelli, the guy behind the guy, I’d look to involve Hunter Dickinson in a myriad of high ball screen handoffs, a key component of Michigan’s base offense. This is the one exchange where Florida State may be hesitant to switch – thus, this action will either a) outright prevent FSU from switching or b) force a switch and create an impending mismatch on the block for Dickinson. It’s far easier said than done but it’s worth prying given the limited outs the Seminoles’ defense leaves you.
Florida State on Offense: In a sense, Michigan can give Florida State a dose of its own medicine on the opposite end. The Wolverines boast a couple big wings of their own, specifically Franz Wagner and Chaundree Brown. Coupled with sound defensive positioning and connectivity, it’s nearly impossible to find an open alley way to the rim against UM’s set defense.
LSU had issues breaking down the sturdy defensive structure but they were able to generate early offense via live ball turnovers. Michigan can’t offer Florida State any gifts in this regard. While Mike Smith struggled against LSU’s length last weekend, I’d still trust him and Brooks with my life.
If the game gets tight late, Michigan must be ready for Florida State’s secret schematic weapon: Pick-n-roll with Gray, aka ‘mini’ Zion, as the initiator:
Riley’s poetic analogy is spot on.
Key Factor(s):
Hunter Dickinson’s been Mr. Reliable this tournament but there are a few blemishes worth calling out. Peek under the hood and you’ll find Dickinson has only two more rebounds (11) and one more field goal (10) than turnovers OR fouls in this tournament (9). Will Wade was not shy about his aim to attack Dickinson before the Round of 32 showdown and Dickinson did foul out against Texas Southern in the opener.
However, I categorize that as a ‘fluke’ rather than a ‘trend’. It was the first time Dickinson fouled out all year and his season long foul rate (‘Fouls Committed per 40 minutes’, per KenPom) is a stellar 4.0.
That’s a roundabout way of saying, “this is likely a non-factor, despite any narratives that may emerge as everyone hyper-analyzes the Xs and Os”.
Let me turn that narrative on its head. It’s actually Florida State who should be worried. The Seminoles do NOT have an established post defender capable of corralling Dickinson 1-v-1. I raved about Balsa Koprivica’s come up as a defensive weapon in our Round 1 preview but he’s more of a deterrent against drivers and cutters, as opposed to a sturdy paint enforcer who can defend the post. That distinction may be nitpicky but the latter is what you need to bump Dickinson off the block.
As for, Koprivica’s foul tendencies? For the season, a 5.6 FC per 40 ain’t great and it’s trending in the wrong direction (13 fouls in his last three games).
·The shooting regression monster has been chasing Florida State all year and finally caught up with the ‘Noles the last two games. After posting a big fat donut hole for 9 in the opening round against UNCG, FSU went just 6-for-17 from downtown against Colorado. That 24% clip on a small sample size is not indicative of FSU’s shooting caliber but neither is the piping hot 38% clip they sustained most of the year.
Debating FSU’s true shooting caliber is not the point here. Rather, it’s that FSU CAN cook from long distance, a weapon not at their disposal in recent years.
Final Predictions: With all due respect to UCLA, the top of the East bracket contains two of the three best teams left in the region. In fact, you could convince me behind Gonzaga and Baylor, the 3rd, 4th and 5th best teams are in this pocket.
In what could be the best game of the Sweet-16, I’m riding with Lenny Hamilton and the boys of Tallahassee. This is the game the Isaiah Livers’ injury finally comes back to haunt the Wolverines.
(11) UCLA vs. (2) Alabama
Initial Thoughts: Anyone else watch Alabama obliterate Maryland in the 2nd half? I mean, do the Bruins have a prayer against THAT version of Bama?
The short answer is “no”.
Does that mean Mick Cronin should call off his quest to break down another NCAA Tournament barrier? Obviously not. Alabama isn’t a preprogrammed robot. They do have flaws and they can be bothered but it’s been a while since we’ve seen the Tide revert back to old habits.
UCLA on Offense: Imagine a wing-laden, finesse team coached by Mick Cronin. You know, the guy who’s stuck his nose up at top-flight shooting and shot-making in favor of toughness and physicality for the better part of his head coaching tenure.
Losing Chris Smith and Jalen Hill made this identity shift an easy decision but the Hollywood-ification of the Bruins is in full swing. Tyger Campbell is chopping up defenders in pick-n-roll. Jaime Jacquez and Jules Bernard are slashing to the rim in style. Johnny Juzang and Jake Kyman are raining in triples from deep in bonus land territory.
No, it doesn’t have that grungy Cronin stigma at all, does it…
Despite the modernizations, UCLA now runs into its defensive Kryptonite. Alabama is littered with long, athletic multi-positional wings who can switch all over the floor. Herb Jones is the catalyst, who’s finally gotten the national notoriety he deserves. Once a one-trick-pony, Jones’ is no longer a defensive specialist. He’s expanded his defensive presence in Oats’ system but also thrives as a fast break starter and cutter.
Alabama on Offense: If Jones and the stable of Alabama athletes are let loose in the open floor, this one could get out of hand in a hurry. The only shot the Bruins have is to keep Bama in the half-court, contain dribble penetration and disrupt shots at the rim.
Unlike Cronin’s vintage Cincinnati teams, this UCLA squad is devoid of an elite fly swatter (Gary Clark immediately comes to mind). They have plus perimeter defenders who can stay in front but Cody Riley behind them is not a terrifying shot-blocker.
The other problem for UCLA is Jahvon Quinerly.
I already used Quinerly as my ‘Key Factor’ in the opening round breakdown against Iona but I’m shoe-horning his name here again. Quinerly was virtually unguardable against Maryland and forced every help-side defender to shade his way whenever he had the rock. Quinerly responded to the increased defensive attention by spraying the ball around to his teammates, as he dished out 13 assists off-the-pine.
Alabama’s offense is predominantly drive and kick, with less pick-n-roll action than one might think. However, Quinerly is a ball screen savant, consuming 45% of all Alabama pick-n-roll possessions, per Synergy.
Here’s a transition drag screen type of action, which spaces the middle of the floor for Quinerly to go to work in isolation (notice the vintage jelly roll photo finish):
In this instance, Quinerly’s ‘change-up’ pass to the rolling Juwan Gary initiates the defensive breakdown, setting up an easy drive for John Petty against a scrambled defense.
Key Factor(s): Jordan Bruner was the odd man out for Alabama in the Maryland matchup. Shockingly, the Tide grabbed a whopping 15 offensive rebounds (50% of their misses!) despite using a relatively smaller lineup. Granted, the O-boards dominance was largely a function of Maryland’s own height deficiencies.
Unlike the Terps, UCLA will not bend so easily on the glass. Big Cody Riley was a one-man-wrecking-crew on the boards against Abilene, hauling in 10 defensive rebounds in 31 minutes. Riley will have his hands full keeping up with Alabama’s NASCAR-paced transition attack but he can negate that by ensuring the Tide go one and done on the offense end.
When it’s over, examining Bruner and Riley’s box scores could illuminate how the coaching schematic duel played out and who out-maneuvered who on the hardwood chess board.
Final Predictions: Alabama has oscillated from ‘holy shit this team slays’ to ‘wait, is this team is mortal?’ over the last two months. However, the latter seems like a distance memory at this juncture, with the Tide riding an 8-game win streak heading into the weekend.
Quinerly’s quietly been the difference, an explosive yet reliable engine that adds a whole new element to Bama’s already high-octane offense. If the Jelly Fam captain keeps doing his thing, this souped up, fully loaded, deluxe version of the Roll Tide is here to stay and UCLA is just another trembling road bump about to be smashed.