-Jim Root
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(1) Gonzaga vs. (5) Creighton
Initial Thoughts: Ho-hum, Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 again, this time via routes of 43 and 16 points. Sitting as 13-point favorites (or 13.5, in some places), the Zags are looking eerily reminiscent of the 2018 Villanova squad that won every tournament game by double-digits.
On the other side stands Creighton, which survived – emphasis on survived – an opening round tangle with a game UC Santa Barbara squad and then thrashed Ohio in the second round thanks to a stellar defensive effort and strong showings from star point guard Marcus Zegarowski and aggressive wing Damien Jefferson.
Gonzaga on Offense: There’s not a ton left to say about this insane Gonzaga offense that has not already been said, but here’s a couple stats. Via the Sports Reference.com advanced game logs, Gonzaga registered an offensive rating of at least 103.6 in every single game this year. Similarly, in every game, the Bulldogs posted an effective field goal percentage of 52.2% or greater. For comparison, the national median was 49.9%, per KenPom. And finally, the Bulldogs tallied an O-rating over 130 more times (six) than they posted one under 110 (five).
So what do you do here?
Well, if you’re Creighton, you can at least be happy that you have bigger wings in Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney, and Mitch Ballock that can battle with the Zags’ prolific backcourt group. The concern is where you put Zegarowski, who will compete on this end but lacks the size to truly bother any of the Jalen Suggs/Andrew Nembhard/Joel Ayayi group.
The biggest concern, though, is the man in the middle, the Headband Handlebar Hero, Drew Timme. Christian Bishop is a terrific big man for Creighton, but he’s giving up a ton of size and strength in the post, and Timme is one of the country’s premier scorers in that area (98th percentile, per Synergy):
I call that one the “Timme Twirl.” It’s hard to see a way for Creighton coach Greg McDermott to avoid doubling (even if he rolls out bigger body Ryan Kalkbrenner), which opens up the court for Gonzaga’s symphony of ball movement.
Creighton’s defense has been sneaky excellent this year, but Gonzaga is going to score; the goal simply needs to limit that scoring to “solidly efficient” rather than “supernova explosion.”
Creighton on Offense: The key matchup here is, once again, Bishop vs. Timme. As much as Timme’s strength and footwork in the post can hurt Bishop on the other end, this is where Bishop’s mobility will give Timme headaches. The Bluejays will run a bunch of pick-and-roll action with him as the screener, and Zegarowski’s devastating pull-up shooting means the Zags can’t simply play drop coverage. The more Timme has to help, the longer he has to go to recover, which means the longer the rest of the Zags’ have to tag Bishop as a roller, which opens up skip passes to the Bluejays’ shooters, which puts the Zags in scramble mode defensively…
Yes, the run-on sentence is for effect there, so sorry to my English teachers – I’m keeping it!
It’s not Gonzaga’s calling card, and they’re not elite in any one single area (well, maybe on the glass), but the Zags’ defense as a unit is elite. They can switch 1 through 4 at will thanks to their size and length in the backcourt, and if they want to amp up the defense even more, they can turn to Anton Watson in the paint while giving Timme a breather:
Of course, that takes away Gonzaga’s primary advantage offensively, so if McDermott and the Jays are able to force Gonzaga’s hand there, that’s an unequivocal win.
Key Factor(s): Can the Bluejays generate open shots for Ballock? He’s as lethal as it gets from downtown, but he is just 3-for-10 from deep in the tournament so far, and going back even further, he’s only 7-for-27 over his last five contests. If he can explode for six or seven triples while the defense is rotating and focusing attention on Zegarowski, that gives Creighton a viable right to hanging around. Additionally, Jefferson and Mahoney – two streaky shooters themselves – need to drop in a couple from deep to open up their driving lanes.
Elsewhere, Creighton needs to compete on the glass. This is not a good two-way rebounding team, and the Zags have quietly been terrific on the glass largely thanks to the efforts of Ayayi (remember his 18-rebound outburst against Iowa back in December?).
Final Prediction: While the spread feels high (I make it 11.5), I am, quite frankly, sick of betting against this Zags team. Both teams have routes to bothering the opponent’s defense, so as long as Creighton does not make too strong an effort to slow the game down, the over looks solid to me. Ultimately, the Timme factor and the Zags’ overwhelming onslaught of an offense will prevail, but the Bluejays will be pesky for a little while prior to the Zags pulling away.
(6) USC vs. (7) Oregon
Initial Thoughts: We have some strange similarities here. Two (arguably under-seeded) Pac-12 teams coming off impressive demolitions of higher-seeded teams in the Round of 32, both of which scored 1.25+ points per possession in those dazzling performances.
The primary differences are twofold. First, Oregon did not have to play a Round of 64 game, and it’s hard to argue that’s not an advantage at this point in the season, especially since it would have come against a VCU team geared towards wearing you down with pressure. Second, USC’s defense was far more impressive, throttling an ice-cold Kansas team to the tune of 0.75 points per possession.
Oh, and these two have some bad blood to settle from the Pac-12 title race, which Oregon captured at 14-4, closely followed by USC at 15-5. I’ll set the odds on “Over 0.5 Technical Fouls” at -200.
USC on Offense: As mentioned, the Trojans shredded Kansas on Monday, burying 11 threes at a 61.1% clip while also shooting a pristine 55.3% inside the arc. The Jayhawks’ vaunted defense had no answers at all, but some questions exist about the sustainability of that effort.
Seven of those 11 threes came from Isaiah Mobley and Isaiah White, two guys who had combined for 29 triples all season before that outburst. And it wasn’t just simple catch-and-shoot opportunities – if the elder Mobley is burying shots like this, you have very few options aside from just taking your beating and shaking hands afterwards:
Whether that’s repeatable or not may not matter, though. Both Isaiah and Evan Mobley have massive edges in the paint against the smaller Oregon frontcourt, even if Dana Altman gives Franck Kepnang extended minutes again (as he did back on Feb. 22).
The trick will be getting those guys quality touches in advantageous spots. Evan only took seven shots and three free throws against Oregon in that first meeting (Isaiah missed with injury), with Altman’s morphing defenses and trapping pressures putting a greater burden on the USC guards. They shouldered that burden capably, though, with Tahj Eaddy and Drew Peterson combining for 39 points and eight triples, including a hailstorm of threes right from the opening tip from Eaddy. Ethan Anderson, meanwhile, racked up eight assists to just one turnover, and if those three guys play that well again (particularly Anderson’s floor game), the Ducks are in trouble.
Oregon on Offense: The Ducks’ offense was even better than USC’s last round, torching Iowa for 56 points in a frenetic first half en route to a comfortable 15-point win where Oregon led by 13+ for the final 14 minutes. Of course, going from facing Iowa’s defense to facing USC’s legion of length is like riding your bike around your neighborhood and suddenly being transported into the Tour de France.
That level of difficulty was painfully obvious in Oregon’s beatdown loss at USC in February, as the Ducks managed a two field goals in the game’s first 10 minutes (zero points in the first five). A borderline-elite offensive team looked utterly lost, committing baffling turnovers, bricking open jumpers, and tossing up scared finishes at the rim:
Missing open jumpers early on was a part of that story, but ask Kansas – USC has a habit of making opposing shooters uncomfortable. The Ducks stabilized somewhat, eventually cutting a 26-point deficit to 10 with five minutes to play, but they ran out of steam in the end.
At the very least, the Ducks second half resurgence offers an encouraging jumping off point for the rematch. Will Richardson was still figuring things out post-injury at that point, but he is playing at an extremely high level lately, and the Ducks have the requisite backcourt size to not be totally blanketed by USC’s lanky perimeter. Plus, Eugene Omoruyi’s versatility can at least move Evan Mobley around and prevent him from pitching a tent under the rim and swatting everything in sight.
Key Factor(s): What kind of mindset does Oregon enter with? I have to assume it won’t be as shook as the Ducks looked back in February, because if they are, this will not be competitive for long. Altman should have them ready to attack the USC defense more aggressively and incisively.
The other key is USC’s painful free throw shooting (328th nationally). If this is a close game, that could really pop up as a major issue. Only Eaddy is above 70% in the regular rotation, and guys like Isaiah Mobley (52.8%), White (62.0%), and Anderson (61.0%) are prone to leaving quite a few points at the stripe. It hasn’t mattered while the Trojnas have blown teams out, but let’s not forget about the 6-of-12 performance in the Pac-12 semis in a 72-70 loss to Colorado.
Final Prediction: I actually make Oregon a tiny (-0.5) favorite here, but the matchup and the initial meeting both have me quaking in my boots. Oregon is going to struggle mightily to get easy points, which puts a lot of stress on them to knock down shots early and often. Altman’s tricky schemes can help negate the Mobley brothers somewhat on the other end, but the offensive glass could be an issue even if USC’s shooting isn’t erupting like Mount Vesuvius. As a bettor, I’m staying far away from this game, though as a fan, I’m incredibly intrigued by the matchup.